COVID-19 Records

Private channel session 708

53 messages over 4h 45m, 2020-12-21 – 2020-12-21.

A “conversation” here is an activity session — a run of messages with under 60 minutes of silence inside it. The channel had no native conversation boundaries.

  1. 2020-12-21 13:06 Robert F. Garry open PDF p.332
    The Starr ref from Andrew's *brilliant* virological post [destined to be in the top 2 or 3 in importance] has this figure.As noted therein N501Y one of *very* few including the mink N501T that increase ACE2 binding. Kudos to Starr etal. who also picked up Y453F (a mink mutation that appears to be another monoclonal antibody resistant mutation)as a change that enhances ACE2 binding. [shared file(s): image.png]
  2. 2020-12-21 13:10 Edward C. Holmes open PDF p.333
    What was the Nigeria post?
  3. 2020-12-21 13:15 Robert F. Garry open PDF p.333
    Just to revisit Baric https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7081895/ "Second, residue 501 in 2019-nCoV RBD (corresponding to residue 487 in SARS-CoV) is an asparagine. Based on our previous structural analysis, residue 487 in SARS-CoV is located near virus-binding hot spot Lys353 (i.e., hot spot 353) on human ACE2 Fig.1C. Hot spot 353 consists of a salt bridge between Lys353 and Asp38 also buried in a hydrophobic environment. In civet SARS-CoV RBD (year 2002), residue 487 is a serine, which cannot provide favorable support for hot spot 353. Inhuman SARS-CoV isolated in year 2002, residue 487 is a threonine, which strengthens the structural stability of hot spot 353. The S487T mutation adds the favorable interaction at the RBD-human ACE2 interface, enhances viral binding to human ACE2, and plays a critical role in the human-to-human transmission of SARS-CoV. In human SARS-CoV isolated in year 2003, residue 487 is a serine and there was no human-to-human transmission for this SARS-CoV strain. Asn501 in 2019-nCoV RBD provides more support to hot spot 353 than Ser487 but less thanThr487. This analysis suggests that 2019-nCoV recognizes human ACE2 less efficiently than human SARS-CoV (year 2002) but more efficiently than human SARS-CoV (year 2003). Hence, at least when considering the ACE2-RBD interactions, 2019-nCoV has gained some capability to transmit from human to human." It's not held uptoo well.
  4. 2020-12-21 13:49 Robert F. Garry open PDF p.333
    Next up: the DRASTIC krewe advances their theory that the UK variant is a lab escape. Don't bother, but this from one of the DRASTIC stars: "Both the S1, the RBM and the FCS of the UK variant show obvious sign of adaptation inmice." Will Alina, Relman Ebright jump on the bandwagon?:exploding_head:
  5. 2020-12-21 13:52 Andrew Rambaut open PDF p.333
    It is a way more likely hypothesis than the Wuhan lab in that there is provably SARS-CoV-2 in hundreds of labs doing a thousand different experiments.
  6. 2020-12-21 13:52 Edward C. Holmes open PDF p.333
    SO3
  7. 2020-12-21 13:52 Andrew Rambaut open PDF p.333
    We even considered it for a bit
  8. 2020-12-21 13:54 Edward C. Holmes open PDF p.333
    Porton Down does have that bad rap after all
  9. 2020-12-21 13:54 Andrew Rambaut open PDF p.333
    But given the South African outbreak has a very similar pattern I am still going for chronic immunocompromised human (and there are obviously lots in South Africa).
  10. 2020-12-21 13:56 Edward C. Holmes open PDF p.333
    Totally agree. Might be good if DRASTIC were distracted for a while.
  11. 2020-12-21 14:04 Kristian G. Andersen open PDF p.334
    Chronic infection seems more likely to me - however, I don't think we can rule out potential epizootic spilling back into humans. But all these mutations certainly look consistent with chronic infection
  12. 2020-12-21 14:05 Kristian G. Andersen open PDF p.334
    Bob, from the paper above - really does seem 501 is a key 'transmission' residue. Of course, 501T has also been observed.
  13. 2020-12-21 14:05 Andrew Rambaut open PDF p.334
    It wouldn't be a simple epizootic - extensive transmission in mink didn't produce more than a few mutations
  14. 2020-12-21 14:06 Kristian G. Andersen open PDF p.334
    Mink > rodents > humans - or some weird shit. But yeah, I agree - not consistent with what has been observedin mink and fully consistent with what has been observed in chronic infections.
  15. 2020-12-21 14:06 Andrew Rambaut open PDF p.334
    South Africa are really worried about E484K (in conjunction with 501Y)
  16. 2020-12-21 14:06 Robert F. Garry open PDF p.334
    Actually might be good to ask about for others that are adapting SC2 to mice - we've got a few groups here as well. Baric got Q493K by passing SC2 in mice. https://www.cell.com/cell/fulltext/S0092-8674(20)31247-2?rss=yes It was Sun et al. got N501Y, Q493H, and K417N. https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.11.10.377333v1
  17. 2020-12-21 14:08 Kristian G. Andersen open PDF p.334
    E484K - yeah, I _do_ wonder if there's some weird synergy going on between mutations here - I have a hard time believing all of this is down to 501 alone. But hey :man-shrugging:
  18. 2020-12-21 14:08 Andrew Rambaut open PDF p.334
    They also have K417N in ZA
  19. 2020-12-21 14:09 Kristian G. Andersen open PDF p.334
    Heh. Oooookay.
  20. 2020-12-21 14:09 Kristian G. Andersen open PDF p.334
    2/3 mutations associated with rodents?
  21. 2020-12-21 14:11 Kristian G. Andersen open PDF p.334
    Yeah, so SA is K417N and N501Y - SA/UK both Q493
  22. 2020-12-21 14:12 Kristian G. Andersen open PDF p.334
    So really major amino acid changes in the few they have - flipping around charges, etc.
  23. 2020-12-21 14:13 Kristian G. Andersen open PDF p.335
    That E484K gotta be making some major differences in the structure
  24. 2020-12-21 14:19 Robert F. Garry open PDF p.335
    Going full in: the FCS of some strains of mouse hepatitis virus is *H*RARRS.
  25. 2020-12-21 14:23 Kristian G. Andersen open PDF p.335
    There you go. It's time we go back to Andrew's London sewage theory.
  26. 2020-12-21 14:26 Kristian G. Andersen open PDF p.335
    @Andrew Rambaut - do you have a good reference for the best "Wales" lineages?
  27. 2020-12-21 14:26 Andrew Rambaut open PDF p.335
    You mean what muts it has?
  28. 2020-12-21 14:27 Kristian G. Andersen open PDF p.335
    A GISAID ID? Creating an alignment for Andrew Ward so he can get a cryo guy on it and he wanted a prioritized listof sequences
  29. 2020-12-21 14:29 Robert F. Garry open PDF p.335
    https://www.propublica.org/article/here-are-six-accidents-unc-researchers-had-with-lab-created-coronaviruses"*April2020*: A UNC scientist underwent 14 days of self-quarantine at home after a mouse bite caused potential exposureto a strain of SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, that had been adapted for growth in mice. The incidentin a biosafety level 3 lab happened when a researcher attempted to read the ID number on a tag on a mouse's ear.The mouse flipped over in the researcher's hand and bit an index finger through two layers of gloves. It did not appear to break the researcher's skin, but UNC told NIH in its reports that "given the uncertainty surrounding the exposure, we are treating this as a medium/high risk exposure." The researcher was instructed to self-quarantine and do twice-daily temperature checks. UNC also notified the local Health Department. No further information about the worker's health was included in the incident reports."
  30. 2020-12-21 14:30 Andrew Rambaut open PDF p.335
    Very confusingly (and coincidentally) it is lineage B.1.1.70
  31. 2020-12-21 14:30 Andrew Rambaut open PDF p.335
    Here are all the mutations from Wuhan: Spike D614G, Spike N501Y, N G204R, N Q9H, N R203K, NS3 Y156C, NS7a T14I, NSP3 H1539Y, NSP3 S126L, NSP5 G71S, NSP5 P132L, NSP12 P323L, NSP15 A217V, NSP15 M271I, NSP15 T33I
  32. 2020-12-21 14:30 Andrew Rambaut open PDF p.335
    EPI_ISL_710967
  33. 2020-12-21 14:30 Kristian G. Andersen open PDF p.335
    Awesome - thanks
  34. 2020-12-21 14:31 Andrew Rambaut open PDF p.336
    (most 501Y from Wales are this lineage at the moment but it is changing)
  35. 2020-12-21 14:31 Andrew Rambaut open PDF p.336
    So no other spikes apart from 614G but everyone has one of those these days
  36. 2020-12-21 14:36 Kristian G. Andersen open PDF p.336
    That's interesting about the Wales lineage - so if that's really spreading fast too and we believe there's a causalrelationship, then it's down to N501Y - potentially with D614G, but as you say, they all have that one (including that earlier cluster in Australia that didn't go anywhere).
  37. 2020-12-21 14:42 Robert F. Garry open PDF p.336
    guess not - color blind
  38. 2020-12-21 14:57 Andrew Rambaut open PDF p.336
    My feeling is the Welsh cluster isn't growing at the same rate. It is at least as old but hasn't taken over or spread toother places. Also may have been amplified by some hospital outbreaks.
  39. 2020-12-21 14:59 Kristian G. Andersen open PDF p.336
    Makes sense.
  40. 2020-12-21 15:14 Andrew Rambaut open PDF p.336
    Just found a genome from mid July that has N501Y and the ORF8 stop Possibly part of the precursor lineage.
  41. 2020-12-21 15:57 Robert F. Garry open PDF p.336
    From Sun: "In our previous study, we generated a mouse-adapted strain of SARS-CoV-2 (MASCp6) by 6 serial passages of a SARS-CoV-2 in the lung of *aged* BALB/c mice, which caused moderate lung damage and no fatality in mice. Herein, we further serially passaged for additional 30 times to generate a more virulent SARS-CoV-2, and the resulting virus at passage 36 ( named as MASCp36) was used for stock preparation and titration." And a little deeper dive into the supplement reveals that N501Y came up early - by 6 passages [and it wasn't pathogenic] the other 2 muts took more passages [and tjhose mutations - probably Q493K actually made the virus pathogenic for mice. . Aged mice are definitely immunosuppressed. So, evidence for the immunocompromised theory.
  42. 2020-12-21 16:07 Edward C. Holmes open PDF p.336
    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-55364445
  43. 2020-12-21 16:13 Andrew Rambaut open PDF p.336
    We should offer to go do it.
  44. 2020-12-21 16:13 Kristian G. Andersen open PDF p.336
    YES - we can collect our fat checks at the same time!
  45. 2020-12-21 16:14 Kristian G. Andersen open PDF p.336
    One question I'd ask - "Since you faked RaTG13, why haven't you faked a closely related ancestral strain from a random intermediate host?"
  46. 2020-12-21 16:17 Andrew Rambaut open PDF p.337
    Has anyone tried translating it out of frame? Perhaps it says "MADEINCHINA"?
  47. 2020-12-21 16:20 Edward C. Holmes open PDF p.337
    "FUNGFLUPATENTPENDING"
  48. 2020-12-21 16:20 Andrew Rambaut open PDF p.337
    ```Sars-Cov-2, the authors concluded, was likely to have gained its unique efficiency through a long, undetected period of circulation in humans or animals of a natural and milder precursor virus that eventually evolved into thepotent, deadly form first detected in Wuhan in 2019.```Eh?
  49. 2020-12-21 16:21 Andrew Rambaut open PDF p.337
    5.1 million reads though
  50. 2020-12-21 16:49 Edward C. Holmes open PDF p.337
    Vince is loosing the plot: http://www.microbe.tv/twiv/
  51. 2020-12-21 16:54 Kristian G. Andersen open PDF p.337
    I can't stand to listen to him - he's disqualified from all further discussions (the worst thing is - he NEVER listens toANYBODY. It's all about him and only about him - and only he knows). He got Ebola wrong, he got Zika wrong, and he's now once again getting another virus wrong.I have no idea what he actually knows about - because even his virology knowledge (let alone genomics/epi/immunology, etc) is shockingly poor.
  52. 2020-12-21 17:18 Kristian G. Andersen open PDF p.337
    Well, at least Butt Lesion actually knows what he's talking about - at least sometimes.
  53. 2020-12-21 17:51 Edward C. Holmes open PDF p.337
    He definitely know a thing or two about arseholes.