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1. 2020-12-21 14:57 Andrew Rambaut open
   My feeling is the Welsh cluster isn't growing at the same rate. It is at least as old but hasn't taken over or spread toother places. Also may have been amplified by some hospital outbreaks.
2. 2020-12-21 14:59 Kristian G. Andersen open
   Makes sense.
3. 2020-12-21 15:14 Andrew Rambaut open
   Just found a genome from mid July that has N501Y and the ORF8 stop Possibly part of the precursor lineage.
4. 2020-12-21 15:57 Robert F. Garry open
   From Sun: "In our previous study, we generated a mouse-adapted strain of SARS-CoV-2 (MASCp6) by 6 serial passages of a SARS-CoV-2 in the lung of *aged* BALB/c mice, which caused moderate lung damage and no fatality in mice. Herein, we further serially passaged for additional 30 times to generate a more virulent SARS-CoV-2, and the resulting virus at passage 36 ( named as MASCp36) was used for stock preparation and titration." And a little deeper dive into the supplement reveals that N501Y came up early - by 6 passages [and it wasn't pathogenic] the other 2 muts took more passages [and tjhose mutations - probably Q493K actually made the virus pathogenic for mice. . Aged mice are definitely immunosuppressed. So, evidence for the immunocompromised theory.
5. 2020-12-21 16:07 Edward C. Holmes
   https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-55364445
6. 2020-12-21 16:13 Andrew Rambaut open
   We should offer to go do it.
7. 2020-12-21 16:13 Kristian G. Andersen open
   YES - we can collect our fat checks at the same time!
8. 2020-12-21 16:14 Kristian G. Andersen open
   One question I'd ask - "Since you faked RaTG13, why haven't you faked a closely related ancestral strain from a random intermediate host?"
9. 2020-12-21 16:17 Andrew Rambaut open
   Has anyone tried translating it out of frame? Perhaps it says "MADEINCHINA"?

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