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Slack / Private Message Drop, p.333 [SLACK_000547] · slack_pm:msg:03507

Date: 2020-12-21 13:54
Type: chat message · slack
recipient: Kristian G. Andersen, Robert F. Garry, Edward C. Holmes
speaker: Andrew Rambaut

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But given the South African outbreak has a very similar pattern I am still going for chronic immunocompromised human (and there are obviously lots in South Africa).

In context

A single line often inverts meaning once you see what it answers, so neighbouring messages are always shown.

2020-12-21 13:52 Andrew Rambaut open

It is a way more likely hypothesis than the Wuhan lab in that there is provably SARS-CoV-2 in hundreds of labs doing a thousand different experiments.
2020-12-21 13:52 Edward C. Holmes open

SO3
2020-12-21 13:52 Andrew Rambaut open

We even considered it for a bit
2020-12-21 13:54 Edward C. Holmes open

Porton Down does have that bad rap after all
2020-12-21 13:54 Andrew Rambaut

But given the South African outbreak has a very similar pattern I am still going for chronic immunocompromised human (and there are obviously lots in South Africa).
2020-12-21 13:56 Edward C. Holmes open

Totally agree. Might be good if DRASTIC were distracted for a while.
2020-12-21 14:04 Kristian G. Andersen open

Chronic infection seems more likely to me - however, I don't think we can rule out potential epizootic spilling back into humans. But all these mutations certainly look consistent with chronic infection
2020-12-21 14:05 Kristian G. Andersen open

Bob, from the paper above - really does seem 501 is a key 'transmission' residue. Of course, 501T has also been observed.
2020-12-21 14:05 Andrew Rambaut open

It wouldn't be a simple epizootic - extensive transmission in mink didn't produce more than a few mutations

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