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Slack / Private Message Drop, p.336 [SLACK_000550] · slack_pm:msg:03536

Date: 2020-12-21 14:57
Type: chat message · slack
recipient: Kristian G. Andersen, Robert F. Garry, Edward C. Holmes
speaker: Andrew Rambaut

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My feeling is the Welsh cluster isn't growing at the same rate. It is at least as old but hasn't taken over or spread toother places. Also may have been amplified by some hospital outbreaks.

In context

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2020-12-21 14:31 Andrew Rambaut open

(most 501Y from Wales are this lineage at the moment but it is changing)
2020-12-21 14:31 Andrew Rambaut open

So no other spikes apart from 614G but everyone has one of those these days
2020-12-21 14:36 Kristian G. Andersen open

That's interesting about the Wales lineage - so if that's really spreading fast too and we believe there's a causalrelationship, then it's down to N501Y - potentially with D614G, but as you say, they all have that one (including that earlier cluster in Australia that didn't go anywhere).
2020-12-21 14:42 Robert F. Garry open

guess not - color blind
2020-12-21 14:57 Andrew Rambaut

My feeling is the Welsh cluster isn't growing at the same rate. It is at least as old but hasn't taken over or spread toother places. Also may have been amplified by some hospital outbreaks.
2020-12-21 14:59 Kristian G. Andersen open

Makes sense.
2020-12-21 15:14 Andrew Rambaut open

Just found a genome from mid July that has N501Y and the ORF8 stop Possibly part of the precursor lineage.
2020-12-21 15:57 Robert F. Garry open

From Sun: "In our previous study, we generated a mouse-adapted strain of SARS-CoV-2 (MASCp6) by 6 serial passages of a SARS-CoV-2 in the lung of *aged* BALB/c mice, which caused moderate lung damage and no fatality in mice. Herein, we further serially passaged for additional 30 times to generate a more virulent SARS-CoV-2, and the resulting virus at passage 36 ( named as MASCp36) was used for stock preparation and titration." And a little deeper dive into the supplement reveals that N501Y came up early - by 6 passages [and it wasn't pathogenic] the other 2 muts took more passages [and tjhose mutations - probably Q493K actually made the virus pathogenic for mice. . Aged mice are definitely immunosuppressed. So, evidence for the immunocompromised theory.
2020-12-21 16:07 Edward C. Holmes open

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-55364445

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