Slack / Private Message Drop — page 92

[2020-07-01 14:24:32] [Eddie Holmes] If the Editor is completely on the side of the authors what can you do? Their's peer reviewer and then ignoring peer review. Clearly Cell wanted it accepted ASAP because they were worried about being scooped and wanted the citations. Here's the 1st major comment from my review "The statistical analysis of the D614G variant is flawed. I'm not saying that the conclusion is wrong, but the analysis is." [2020-07-01 14:30:58] [Eddie Holmes] I'll use those grader quotes in my next review. [2020-07-01 15:00:26] [Andrew Rambaut] Our analysis of the UK data seems to suggest a higher rate of G growth but it is really hard. We consistently get a higher rate but the significance depends on the details of the analyses. The effect size is small but not insignificant (if true). On the other hand there is not much you can do with the knowledge. [2020-07-01 15:02:07] [Kristian Andersen] Do you have a visual of any of this? I'm kinda struggling with how a difference like this might even look like. The previous R0 estimates I saw for the two clades from Trevor's group essentially looked identical [2020-07-01 15:02:40] [Andrew Rambaut] Please don't show this to anyone just yet but here is an analysis by Erik Volz and we are backing this up on the same data with different models. [shared file(s): image.png] [2020-07-01 15:03:22] [Andrew Rambaut] Each dot is in an independent introduction into the UK. [2020-07-01 15:03:47] [Kristian Andersen] And how's growth rate calculated? [2020-07-01 15:03:48] [Andrew Rambaut] But basically this is not significant under most conservative conditions. [2020-07-01 15:05:30] [Andrew Rambaut] This is using Erik's skygrowth model. [2020-07-01 15:06:00] [Andrew Rambaut] But we are now doing a full BEAST run with a hierarchical model on the growth rates which may give us more power. [2020-07-01 15:09:11] [Kristian Andersen] This is well above my understanding, but isn't it possible to estimate R0 (or Re) pretty reliably given the amount of data you have from the UK? In Erik's model is it possible to adjust for introduction time differences? I assume lockdown measures would affect these differently. [2020-07-01 15:13:17] [Andrew Rambaut]