Chat message

Slack / Private Message Drop, p.92 [SLACK_000306] · slack_pm:msg:00943

Date: 2020-07-01 15:09
Type: chat message · slack
recipient: Robert F. Garry, Edward C. Holmes, Andrew Rambaut
speaker: Kristian G. Andersen
Topics: Masks, lockdowns and NPIs

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This is well above my understanding, but isn't it possible to estimate R0 (or Re) pretty reliably given the amount ofdata you have from the UK? In Erik's model is it possible to adjust for introduction time differences? I assume lockdown measures would affect these differently.

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Statement	Grade	Attribution	Stance
I assume lockdown measures would affect these differently.	needs context	speaker_own	asserts

Statement

Grade

Attribution

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I assume lockdown measures would affect these differently.

needs context

speaker_own

asserts

In context

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2020-07-01 15:03 Kristian G. Andersen open

And how's growth rate calculated?
2020-07-01 15:03 Andrew Rambaut open

But basically this is not significant under most conservative conditions.
2020-07-01 15:05 Andrew Rambaut open

This is using Erik's skygrowth model.
2020-07-01 15:06 Andrew Rambaut open

But we are now doing a full BEAST run with a hierarchical model on the growth rates which may give us more power.
2020-07-01 15:09 Kristian G. Andersen

This is well above my understanding, but isn't it possible to estimate R0 (or Re) pretty reliably given the amount ofdata you have from the UK? In Erik's model is it possible to adjust for introduction time differences? I assume lockdown measures would affect these differently.
2020-07-01 15:13 Andrew Rambaut open

Yes they have individual trajectories up and down but are not conditioned on a particular lockdown date. Our BEAST estimates have two exponential phases with different growth rates (which can be negative) before and after atransition time. They all share the same transition time which is after lockdown (but allows for some lag). For the initial growth all the Ds have a rate and all the Gs have a rate and we estimate them jointly to give us power.
2020-07-01 15:14 Kristian G. Andersen open

Ah, nice - I like that model. Will be interesting to see the results from that - I really can't make up my mind of what Ifind is more likely here

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