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Slack / Private Message Drop, p.92 [SLACK_000306] · slack_pm:msg:00938

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Each dot is in an independent introduction into the UK.

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2020-07-01 14:30 Edward C. Holmes open

I'll use those grader quotes in my next review.
2020-07-01 15:00 Andrew Rambaut open

Our analysis of the UK data seems to suggest a higher rate of G growth but it is really hard. We consistently get ahigher rate but the significance depends on the details of the analyses. The effect size is small but not insignificant(if true). On the other hand there is not much you can do with the knowledge.
2020-07-01 15:02 Kristian G. Andersen open

Do you have a visual of any of this? I'm kinda struggling with how a difference like this might even look like. The previous R0 estimates I saw for the two clades from Trevor's group essentially looked identical
2020-07-01 15:02 Andrew Rambaut open

Please don't show this to anyone just yet but here is an analysis by Erik Volz and we are backing this up on the same data with different models. [shared file(s): image.png]
2020-07-01 15:03 Andrew Rambaut

Each dot is in an independent introduction into the UK.
2020-07-01 15:03 Kristian G. Andersen open

And how's growth rate calculated?
2020-07-01 15:03 Andrew Rambaut open

But basically this is not significant under most conservative conditions.
2020-07-01 15:05 Andrew Rambaut open

This is using Erik's skygrowth model.
2020-07-01 15:06 Andrew Rambaut open

But we are now doing a full BEAST run with a hierarchical model on the growth rates which may give us more power.