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Slack / Private Message Drop, p.92 [SLACK_000306] · slack_pm:msg:00939

Page text: p.92 · original PDF

Date
2020-07-01 15:03
Type
chat message · slack
recipient
Robert F. Garry, Edward C. Holmes, Andrew Rambaut
speaker
Kristian G. Andersen

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And how's growth rate calculated?

In context

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  1. 2020-07-01 15:00 Andrew Rambaut open
    Our analysis of the UK data seems to suggest a higher rate of G growth but it is really hard. We consistently get ahigher rate but the significance depends on the details of the analyses. The effect size is small but not insignificant(if true). On the other hand there is not much you can do with the knowledge.
  2. 2020-07-01 15:02 Kristian G. Andersen open
    Do you have a visual of any of this? I'm kinda struggling with how a difference like this might even look like. The previous R0 estimates I saw for the two clades from Trevor's group essentially looked identical
  3. 2020-07-01 15:02 Andrew Rambaut open
    Please don't show this to anyone just yet but here is an analysis by Erik Volz and we are backing this up on the same data with different models. [shared file(s): image.png]
  4. 2020-07-01 15:03 Andrew Rambaut open
    Each dot is in an independent introduction into the UK.
  5. 2020-07-01 15:03 Kristian G. Andersen
    And how's growth rate calculated?
  6. 2020-07-01 15:03 Andrew Rambaut open
    But basically this is not significant under most conservative conditions.
  7. 2020-07-01 15:05 Andrew Rambaut open
    This is using Erik's skygrowth model.
  8. 2020-07-01 15:06 Andrew Rambaut open
    But we are now doing a full BEAST run with a hierarchical model on the growth rates which may give us more power.
  9. 2020-07-01 15:09 Kristian G. Andersen open
    This is well above my understanding, but isn't it possible to estimate R0 (or Re) pretty reliably given the amount ofdata you have from the UK? In Erik's model is it possible to adjust for introduction time differences? I assume lockdown measures would affect these differently.

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