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1. 2020-07-01 15:03 Andrew Rambaut open
   Each dot is in an independent introduction into the UK.
2. 2020-07-01 15:03 Kristian G. Andersen open
   And how's growth rate calculated?
3. 2020-07-01 15:03 Andrew Rambaut open
   But basically this is not significant under most conservative conditions.
4. 2020-07-01 15:05 Andrew Rambaut open
   This is using Erik's skygrowth model.
5. 2020-07-01 15:06 Andrew Rambaut
   But we are now doing a full BEAST run with a hierarchical model on the growth rates which may give us more power.
6. 2020-07-01 15:09 Kristian G. Andersen open
   This is well above my understanding, but isn't it possible to estimate R0 (or Re) pretty reliably given the amount ofdata you have from the UK? In Erik's model is it possible to adjust for introduction time differences? I assume lockdown measures would affect these differently.
7. 2020-07-01 15:13 Andrew Rambaut open
   Yes they have individual trajectories up and down but are not conditioned on a particular lockdown date. Our BEAST estimates have two exponential phases with different growth rates (which can be negative) before and after atransition time. They all share the same transition time which is after lockdown (but allows for some lag). For the initial growth all the Ds have a rate and all the Gs have a rate and we estimate them jointly to give us power.
8. 2020-07-01 15:14 Kristian G. Andersen open
   Ah, nice - I like that model. Will be interesting to see the results from that - I really can't make up my mind of what Ifind is more likely here

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