Chat message

Slack / Private Message Drop, p.92 [SLACK_000306] · slack_pm:msg:00935

Date: 2020-07-01 15:00
Type: chat message · slack
recipient: Kristian G. Andersen, Robert F. Garry, Edward C. Holmes
speaker: Andrew Rambaut

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Our analysis of the UK data seems to suggest a higher rate of G growth but it is really hard. We consistently get ahigher rate but the significance depends on the details of the analyses. The effect size is small but not insignificant(if true). On the other hand there is not much you can do with the knowledge.

In context

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2020-07-01 14:17 Kristian G. Andersen open

Okay, finally managed to read the full (updated) paper. The analyses are fucking crap and the statistics a completejoke. I'm really surprised this is going through - no way it passed the Eddie smell test
2020-07-01 14:18 Kristian G. Andersen open

The only good thing is that they're not pushing the "it's transmitting better" narrative. I'm not saying that couldn't betrue, all I'm saying is that the data and analyses do not allow for that conclusion. I think Marc might be commentingon the paper for NYT... That could be fun.. :wink:
2020-07-01 14:24 Edward C. Holmes open

If the Editor is completely on the side of the authors what can you do? Their's peer reviewer and then ignoring peer review. Clearly Cell wanted it accepted ASAP because they were worried about being scooped and wanted thecitations. Here's the 1st major comment from my review "The statistical analysis of the D614G variant is flawed. I'm not saying that the conclusion is wrong, but the analysis is."
2020-07-01 14:30 Edward C. Holmes open

I'll use those grader quotes in my next review.
2020-07-01 15:00 Andrew Rambaut

Our analysis of the UK data seems to suggest a higher rate of G growth but it is really hard. We consistently get ahigher rate but the significance depends on the details of the analyses. The effect size is small but not insignificant(if true). On the other hand there is not much you can do with the knowledge.
2020-07-01 15:02 Kristian G. Andersen open

Do you have a visual of any of this? I'm kinda struggling with how a difference like this might even look like. The previous R0 estimates I saw for the two clades from Trevor's group essentially looked identical
2020-07-01 15:02 Andrew Rambaut open

Please don't show this to anyone just yet but here is an analysis by Erik Volz and we are backing this up on the same data with different models. [shared file(s): image.png]
2020-07-01 15:03 Andrew Rambaut open

Each dot is in an independent introduction into the UK.
2020-07-01 15:03 Kristian G. Andersen open

And how's growth rate calculated?

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