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Slack / Private Message Drop, p.92 [SLACK_000306] · slack_pm:msg:00940

Page text: p.92 · original PDF

Date: 2020-07-01 15:03
Type: chat message · slack
recipient: Kristian G. Andersen, Robert F. Garry, Edward C. Holmes
speaker: Andrew Rambaut

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But basically this is not significant under most conservative conditions.

In context

A single line often inverts meaning once you see what it answers, so neighbouring messages are always shown.

2020-07-01 15:02 Kristian G. Andersen open

Do you have a visual of any of this? I'm kinda struggling with how a difference like this might even look like. The previous R0 estimates I saw for the two clades from Trevor's group essentially looked identical
2020-07-01 15:02 Andrew Rambaut open

Please don't show this to anyone just yet but here is an analysis by Erik Volz and we are backing this up on the same data with different models. [shared file(s): image.png]
2020-07-01 15:03 Andrew Rambaut open

Each dot is in an independent introduction into the UK.
2020-07-01 15:03 Kristian G. Andersen open

And how's growth rate calculated?
2020-07-01 15:03 Andrew Rambaut

But basically this is not significant under most conservative conditions.
2020-07-01 15:05 Andrew Rambaut open

This is using Erik's skygrowth model.
2020-07-01 15:06 Andrew Rambaut open

But we are now doing a full BEAST run with a hierarchical model on the growth rates which may give us more power.
2020-07-01 15:09 Kristian G. Andersen open

This is well above my understanding, but isn't it possible to estimate R0 (or Re) pretty reliably given the amount ofdata you have from the UK? In Erik's model is it possible to adjust for introduction time differences? I assume lockdown measures would affect these differently.
2020-07-01 15:13 Andrew Rambaut open

Yes they have individual trajectories up and down but are not conditioned on a particular lockdown date. Our BEAST estimates have two exponential phases with different growth rates (which can be negative) before and after atransition time. They all share the same transition time which is after lockdown (but allows for some lag). For the initial growth all the Ds have a rate and all the Gs have a rate and we estimate them jointly to give us power.

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