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Slack / Private Message Drop, pp.92-93 [SLACK_000306] · slack_pm:msg:00944

Date: 2020-07-01 15:13
Type: chat message · slack
recipient: Kristian G. Andersen, Robert F. Garry, Edward C. Holmes
speaker: Andrew Rambaut
Topics: Masks, lockdowns and NPIs

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Yes they have individual trajectories up and down but are not conditioned on a particular lockdown date. Our BEAST estimates have two exponential phases with different growth rates (which can be negative) before and after atransition time. They all share the same transition time which is after lockdown (but allows for some lag). For the initial growth all the Ds have a rate and all the Gs have a rate and we estimate them jointly to give us power.

Extracted statements

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Statement	Grade	Attribution	Stance
Yes they have individual trajectories up and down but are not conditioned on a particular lockdown date.	own voice, substantive	speaker_own	asserts
They all share the same transition time which is after lockdown (but allows for some lag).	own voice, substantive	speaker_own	asserts

Statement

Grade

Attribution

Stance

Yes they have individual trajectories up and down but are not conditioned on a particular lockdown date.

own voice, substantive

speaker_own

asserts

They all share the same transition time which is after lockdown (but allows for some lag).

own voice, substantive

speaker_own

asserts

In context

A single line often inverts meaning once you see what it answers, so neighbouring messages are always shown.

2020-07-01 15:03 Andrew Rambaut open

But basically this is not significant under most conservative conditions.
2020-07-01 15:05 Andrew Rambaut open

This is using Erik's skygrowth model.
2020-07-01 15:06 Andrew Rambaut open

But we are now doing a full BEAST run with a hierarchical model on the growth rates which may give us more power.
2020-07-01 15:09 Kristian G. Andersen open

This is well above my understanding, but isn't it possible to estimate R0 (or Re) pretty reliably given the amount ofdata you have from the UK? In Erik's model is it possible to adjust for introduction time differences? I assume lockdown measures would affect these differently.
2020-07-01 15:13 Andrew Rambaut

Yes they have individual trajectories up and down but are not conditioned on a particular lockdown date. Our BEAST estimates have two exponential phases with different growth rates (which can be negative) before and after atransition time. They all share the same transition time which is after lockdown (but allows for some lag). For the initial growth all the Ds have a rate and all the Gs have a rate and we estimate them jointly to give us power.
2020-07-01 15:14 Kristian G. Andersen open

Ah, nice - I like that model. Will be interesting to see the results from that - I really can't make up my mind of what Ifind is more likely here

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