Slack / Private Message Drop — page 93

Yes they have individual trajectories up and down but are not conditioned on a particular lockdown date. Our BEAST estimates have two exponential phases with different growth rates (which can be negative) before and after a transition time. They all share the same transition time which is after lockdown (but allows for some lag). For the initial growth all the Ds have a rate and all the Gs have a rate and we estimate them jointly to give us power. [2020-07-01 15:14:44] [Kristian Andersen] Ah, nice - I like that model. Will be interesting to see the results from that - I really can't make up my mind of what I find is more likely here [2020-07-01 22:38:17] [Eddie Holmes] Can't believe how Daszak is laying into Francis Collins. I really hope this comes back to bite him on the arse. [2020-07-01 23:10:42] [Kristian Andersen] Scorched earth [2020-07-02 09:04:04] [Robert Garry] actually just really dumb - he better make sure his grants all score in the top 5% or I'm pretty sure he's seen the last grant from NIH - kiss off any supplements as well. [2020-07-02 17:06:02] [Eddie Holmes] My thoughts exactly. [2020-07-04 03:02:25] [Andrew Rambaut] Here we go again... https://twitter.com/mlipsitch/status/1279226903803629569 [2020-07-04 07:02:39] [Kristian Andersen] Such idiots. On so many levels. [2020-07-04 07:38:55] [Robert Garry] I watched it live - so disturbing - insult to injury - "curefinder" C19 "survivor" who has found no cures and no positive SARS-CoV-2 PCRs or antibody tests was Velchi's guest just before. [2020-07-04 07:58:40] [Robert Garry] Navarro was spewing the latest right wing conspiracy meme that the CCP sent hundreds of thousands of C19 carriers to points around the globe while they shut down Wuhan with the red glove. I know it's a meme - I heard it Tuesday night during a Zoom Q&A I did for the Cosmos Club - mixed group of mostly retired members of the Washington elite but one conservative was all about the "fact" that CCP spread C19 worldwide purposefully. [2020-07-04 08:00:18] [Kristian Andersen] Nice distraction from doing what is actually necessary - these guys have clearly surrendered to the virus, so we'll just let it burn through America. No big deal. [2020-07-04 09:12:32] [Kristian Andersen] @Andrew Rambaut, great analysis in the COG report: https://www.cogconsortium.uk/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/2 5th-June-2020-Report-COVID-19-Genomics-UK-COG-UK-Consortium.pdf