Private channel session 938
18 messages over 52m, 2021-02-07 – 2021-02-07.
A “conversation” here is an activity session — a run of messages with under 60 minutes of silence inside it. The channel had no native conversation boundaries.
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This is pretty nuts - AZN/Oxford vaccine totally killed by B.1.351. Not good. (and do we need to go back to consider that strange overlap between all these variants and the vax trials? Probably not, but it makes me uncomfortable).https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1358488910637060097?s=20
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I think the big question is is this E484K or is it a combo with something else. E484K is popping up all over the shopat the moment.
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Also mild-moderate disease - more important how about severe?
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I think Leif and Karen are key too - but I'd expect B.1.1.7 + Erik to come with a big hit too.
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Absolutely no effect preventing mild-moderate so I don't expect much ability to prevent severe either. But we'll see -this is very early data. It's just a shit vaccine - I'm sure the others won't see this bad a drop (and we have _some_ data on that) and will also prevent severe disease in many cases.
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Leif is everywhere (and quite common on B.1.1.7)
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When testing vaccines against B.1.351, are they using one with Leif and Karen?
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Or the serum - do they know the genotype of the donor?
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https://docs.google.com/document/d/17-2hi7-fNsjE44himeCkm1PoZ7_-ncvpxUlhShZzDCU/edit On another note - I just popped a *nearly clean draft* of a proposed Virological post about Cambodian, Thai and Japanese bat sarbecoviruses. It's actually pretty mild, but Alina etc. *do* get attention. I borrowed VERY heavily from this channel,so please let me know if you are co-authors or I can go solo...
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These are clinical trials - so wildtype
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What's critically important here - drop in efficacy, even bigger than drop observed in vitro
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(which is not surprising to me)
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But do they know whether the infected cases are with a B.1.351 with Leif and/or Karen or one without
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I think it's the problem that spike is wild-type - not stabilized as in the mRNA vaccines - am I right about this?
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Good question - they really should have sequence data in the breakthrus -
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> But do they know whether the infected cases are with a B.1.351 with Leif and/or Karen or one without Ah, yes, good point - I assumed with all those, but yeah, they're not all fixed. I assume likely all three > I think it's the problem that spike is wild-type - not stabilized as in the mRNA vaccines - am I right about this? Not stabilized - like Sputnik. Why they did that, I don't know. Why they haven't updated it, I don't know. Fact is, in six months, that vaccine will be totally irrelevant.
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I'm additionally worried that South Africa might have additional data on this vaccine we don't know about - they justcanceled their whole vaccine program with this one and that's a HUGE step you don't take lightly unless there are additional concern (?). We have to remember that shit immunity can often be worse than no immunity.
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Bob, I will take a look when I can but I would just hold off submitting anything until after the WHO team have made their announcement in a few days. I sense that Daszak is increasingly bullish about excluding WIV.