Chat message

Slack / Private Message Drop, p.400 [SLACK_000614] · slack_pm:msg:04128

Date: 2021-01-14 16:23
Type: chat message · slack
recipient: Kristian G. Andersen, Robert F. Garry, Edward C. Holmes
speaker: Andrew Rambaut
Topics: Vaccines

Recipients on this medium are inferred from channel membership, not per-message addressing.

All vaccine failures in the UK will automatically go for sequencing - I am hopeful we will be told which ones they are but who knows.

Extracted statements

Rule-extracted, not adjudicated. The grade says what may be done with each one; read the document above before relying on any of them.

Statement	Grade	Attribution	Stance
All vaccine failures in the UK will automatically go for sequencing - I am hopeful we will be told which ones they are but who knows.	own voice, substantive	speaker_own	asserts

Statement

Grade

Attribution

Stance

All vaccine failures in the UK will automatically go for sequencing - I am hopeful we will be told which ones they are but who knows.

own voice, substantive

speaker_own

asserts

In context

A single line often inverts meaning once you see what it answers, so neighbouring messages are always shown.

2021-01-14 16:06 Kristian G. Andersen open

> Yes - they do. But I think they can't get there by progressive steps in sequential infections - there are troughs(we see all of these mutations appear individually many times). Agreed. The way I'm thinking about this is that there must be an initial selection pressure that drives the fixation ofthose mutations - almost certainly, that selection pressure is intrahost. Once that variant is out - and it's more transmissible / able to evade immunity - then it's a different selection pressure driving its fixation in the population. Itoo just think there's a really unfortunate relationship between really fit intrahost, means you're really fit in the larger population. Separately, two vaccine failures en route to our lab - I sure as shit hope these are not B117! (they'reepidemiologically connected...).
2021-01-14 16:14 Andrew Rambaut open

How long after vaccination?
2021-01-14 16:17 Kristian G. Andersen open

I believe this was just after receiving second shots - but importantly, in the presence of strong IgG anti-S titers.
2021-01-14 16:18 Kristian G. Andersen open

Don't know if these titers are neuts though - something we need to test. We have a bunch inbound from Jordan too, but those are failures from one of the Chinese vaccines.
2021-01-14 16:23 Andrew Rambaut

All vaccine failures in the UK will automatically go for sequencing - I am hopeful we will be told which ones they are but who knows.
2021-01-14 16:24 Kristian G. Andersen open

Yeah, going to be really important over the next couple of months to understand what's going on here. The immunologists seem very (VERY!) sure there is no problem with the UK/RSA/Brazil lineages when it comes to immunity. I'm less certain.
2021-01-14 16:26 Andrew Rambaut open

I agree. If these constellations have no effect on vaccine elicited immunity then boy will we have dodged a bullet.
2021-01-14 16:27 Kristian G. Andersen open

I'm almost certain they'll have _some_ effect on efficacy, but just not sure how much. Let's hope very little (say, 95%> 92%...)
2021-01-14 16:27 Kristian G. Andersen open

Lord knows what the effectiveness is going to be anyway. We'll see...

Full conversation →