Chat message

Slack / Private Message Drop, p.383 [SLACK_000597] · slack_pm:msg:03982

Recipients on this medium are inferred from channel membership, not per-message addressing.

Okie dokie - will be important/interesting to know. Also very curious to see what's going to happen in Israel after thevax campaign.

In context

A single line often inverts meaning once you see what it answers, so neighbouring messages are always shown.

2021-01-11 15:16 Andrew Rambaut open

You just don't get them step by step in normal transmission with bottle necks
2021-01-11 15:16 Kristian G. Andersen open

Does Oli/Nuno have any data on reinfections? You mentioned a Virological study yesterday, but not sure if they're looking at that?
2021-01-11 15:16 Andrew Rambaut open

Not yet. Fiacruz has one case of reinfection (not this lineage - but another with 484K)
2021-01-11 15:17 Andrew Rambaut open

Latest UK estimate is a total number of infections as 20% of population.
2021-01-11 15:17 Kristian G. Andersen

Okie dokie - will be important/interesting to know. Also very curious to see what's going to happen in Israel after thevax campaign.
2021-01-11 15:17 Andrew Rambaut open

Manaus estimated at 60-70% from first wave
2021-01-11 15:18 Kristian G. Andersen open

Yeah - high... (although I saw quite a number of people disagreeing with that number and the IFR seemed too low tome)
2021-01-11 15:18 Andrew Rambaut open

South Africa high but the area where the variant took off is really high - urban, dense, deprived.
2021-01-11 15:21 Kristian G. Andersen open

Yup - seems plausible that immune escape might be the most likely explanation here - whether linked to natural immunity or vaccine induced. Why that would lead to increased transmission, I'm not quite sure I understand - except if e.g., high ACE2 binding is associated with both escape and transmission (not implausible).