A single line often inverts meaning once you see what it
answers, so neighbouring messages are always shown.
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Latest UK estimate is a total number of infections as 20% of population.
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Okie dokie - will be important/interesting to know. Also very curious to see what's going to happen in Israel after thevax campaign.
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Manaus estimated at 60-70% from first wave
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Yeah - high... (although I saw quite a number of people disagreeing with that number and the IFR seemed too low tome)
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2021-01-11 15:18
Andrew Rambaut
South Africa high but the area where the variant took off is really high - urban, dense, deprived.
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Yup - seems plausible that immune escape might be the most likely explanation here - whether linked to natural immunity or vaccine induced. Why that would lead to increased transmission, I'm not quite sure I understand - except if e.g., high ACE2 binding is associated with both escape and transmission (not implausible).
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It's all very interesting - although to be honest, I don't need any additional excitement at the moment. I just want toget back to being a totally anonymous scientist (with 323 followers on Twitter) looking at Ebola and Lassa genomes. SARS-CoV-2 is a little too exciting for my liking.
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It could be that the UK one is the only one that is inherently more transmissible (perhaps because of the 681H?).The other two are only taking off in hi-prevalence areas. We will see as more of those arrive in much lowerprevalence areas
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Yup, I talked to Helen Branswell earlier today and I mentioned this exact point too - I'm not sure we have good data suggesting that e.g., the RSA variant is indeed more transmissible (even the data showing it's displacing other lineages is a little lacking - at least what I have seen).