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Slack / Private Message Drop, p.382 [SLACK_000596] · slack_pm:msg:03978

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You just don't get them step by step in normal transmission with bottle necks

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A single line often inverts meaning once you see what it answers, so neighbouring messages are always shown.

2021-01-11 15:13 Kristian G. Andersen open

And in different parts of the world - with different climates, so not e.g., a "cold" adaptation.
2021-01-11 15:14 Andrew Rambaut open

Yup. Manaus is not chilly this time of year!
2021-01-11 15:15 Kristian G. Andersen open

They DID have a fuck ton of infections in the spring though. Same for UK. Same for RSA.
2021-01-11 15:15 Andrew Rambaut open

Rare chronic infections could just be a ready source of these mutations in combination (because they can all be selected for in the very large population sizes). When you get the combination it takes off
2021-01-11 15:16 Andrew Rambaut

You just don't get them step by step in normal transmission with bottle necks
2021-01-11 15:16 Kristian G. Andersen open

Does Oli/Nuno have any data on reinfections? You mentioned a Virological study yesterday, but not sure if they're looking at that?
2021-01-11 15:16 Andrew Rambaut open

Not yet. Fiacruz has one case of reinfection (not this lineage - but another with 484K)
2021-01-11 15:17 Andrew Rambaut open

Latest UK estimate is a total number of infections as 20% of population.
2021-01-11 15:17 Kristian G. Andersen open

Okie dokie - will be important/interesting to know. Also very curious to see what's going to happen in Israel after thevax campaign.