Chat message

Slack / Private Message Drop, p.383 [SLACK_000597] · slack_pm:msg:03986

Date: 2021-01-11 15:21
Type: chat message · slack
recipient: Robert F. Garry, Edward C. Holmes, Andrew Rambaut
speaker: Kristian G. Andersen
Topics: Intelligence community assessments Vaccines

Recipients on this medium are inferred from channel membership, not per-message addressing.

Yup - seems plausible that immune escape might be the most likely explanation here - whether linked to natural immunity or vaccine induced. Why that would lead to increased transmission, I'm not quite sure I understand - except if e.g., high ACE2 binding is associated with both escape and transmission (not implausible).

Extracted statements

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Statement	Grade	Attribution	Stance
Yup - seems plausible that immune escape might be the most likely explanation here - whether linked to natural immunity or vaccine induced.	needs context	uncertain explicit hedge	asserts
Why that would lead to increased transmission, I'm not quite sure I understand - except if e.g., high ACE2 binding is associated with both escape and transmission (not implausible).	needs context	speaker_own	asserts

Statement

Grade

Attribution

Stance

Yup - seems plausible that immune escape might be the most likely explanation here - whether linked to natural immunity or vaccine induced.

needs context

uncertain explicit hedge

asserts

Why that would lead to increased transmission, I'm not quite sure I understand - except if e.g., high ACE2 binding is associated with both escape and transmission (not implausible).

needs context

speaker_own

asserts

In context

A single line often inverts meaning once you see what it answers, so neighbouring messages are always shown.

2021-01-11 15:17 Kristian G. Andersen open

Okie dokie - will be important/interesting to know. Also very curious to see what's going to happen in Israel after thevax campaign.
2021-01-11 15:17 Andrew Rambaut open

Manaus estimated at 60-70% from first wave
2021-01-11 15:18 Kristian G. Andersen open

Yeah - high... (although I saw quite a number of people disagreeing with that number and the IFR seemed too low tome)
2021-01-11 15:18 Andrew Rambaut open

South Africa high but the area where the variant took off is really high - urban, dense, deprived.
2021-01-11 15:21 Kristian G. Andersen

Yup - seems plausible that immune escape might be the most likely explanation here - whether linked to natural immunity or vaccine induced. Why that would lead to increased transmission, I'm not quite sure I understand - except if e.g., high ACE2 binding is associated with both escape and transmission (not implausible).
2021-01-11 15:24 Kristian G. Andersen open

It's all very interesting - although to be honest, I don't need any additional excitement at the moment. I just want toget back to being a totally anonymous scientist (with 323 followers on Twitter) looking at Ebola and Lassa genomes. SARS-CoV-2 is a little too exciting for my liking.
2021-01-11 15:30 Andrew Rambaut open

It could be that the UK one is the only one that is inherently more transmissible (perhaps because of the 681H?).The other two are only taking off in hi-prevalence areas. We will see as more of those arrive in much lowerprevalence areas
2021-01-11 15:32 Kristian G. Andersen open

Yup, I talked to Helen Branswell earlier today and I mentioned this exact point too - I'm not sure we have good data suggesting that e.g., the RSA variant is indeed more transmissible (even the data showing it's displacing other lineages is a little lacking - at least what I have seen).
2021-01-11 15:32 Kristian G. Andersen open

(No question about the UK lineage though).

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