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Slack / Private Message Drop, p.383 [SLACK_000597] · slack_pm:msg:03981

Page text: p.383 · original PDF

Date
2021-01-11 15:17
Type
chat message · slack
recipient
Kristian G. Andersen, Robert F. Garry, Edward C. Holmes
speaker
Andrew Rambaut

Recipients on this medium are inferred from channel membership, not per-message addressing.

Latest UK estimate is a total number of infections as 20% of population.

In context

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  1. 2021-01-11 15:15 Andrew Rambaut open
    Rare chronic infections could just be a ready source of these mutations in combination (because they can all be selected for in the very large population sizes). When you get the combination it takes off
  2. 2021-01-11 15:16 Andrew Rambaut open
    You just don't get them step by step in normal transmission with bottle necks
  3. 2021-01-11 15:16 Kristian G. Andersen open
    Does Oli/Nuno have any data on reinfections? You mentioned a Virological study yesterday, but not sure if they're looking at that?
  4. 2021-01-11 15:16 Andrew Rambaut open
    Not yet. Fiacruz has one case of reinfection (not this lineage - but another with 484K)
  5. 2021-01-11 15:17 Andrew Rambaut
    Latest UK estimate is a total number of infections as 20% of population.
  6. 2021-01-11 15:17 Kristian G. Andersen open
    Okie dokie - will be important/interesting to know. Also very curious to see what's going to happen in Israel after thevax campaign.
  7. 2021-01-11 15:17 Andrew Rambaut open
    Manaus estimated at 60-70% from first wave
  8. 2021-01-11 15:18 Kristian G. Andersen open
    Yeah - high... (although I saw quite a number of people disagreeing with that number and the IFR seemed too low tome)
  9. 2021-01-11 15:18 Andrew Rambaut open
    South Africa high but the area where the variant took off is really high - urban, dense, deprived.

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