COVID-19 Records

Private channel session 1160

77 messages over 9h 18m, 2021-03-26 – 2021-03-26.

A “conversation” here is an activity session — a run of messages with under 60 minutes of silence inside it. The channel had no native conversation boundaries.

  1. 2021-03-26 07:14 Kristian G. Andersen open PDF p.635
    This, Bob? Cute. She might not want to go ahead with that... :skull: [shared file(s): Screen Shot 2021-03-26 at 07.10.37.png]
  2. 2021-03-26 07:16 Andrew Rambaut open PDF p.635
    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-03-26/former-cdc-chief-says-he-thinks-co[...]=social&utm_sour ce=twitter&cmpid=socialflow-twitter-business
  3. 2021-03-26 07:17 Kristian G. Andersen open PDF p.635
    Hah. Well, not exactly the top scientist in the US, huh?
  4. 2021-03-26 07:22 Kristian G. Andersen open PDF p.635
    > I can't see any scenario of animal reservoir that would fit the phylogenetic tree of what we see globally Agreed, however, it wouldn't necessarily be visible as I'm specifically talking about very rare events 'cooking' upsome of the variants. E.g., in the Tanzania example, a lineage hopped into some animal, caused an epizootic (withno spill-back), and then at some point spilled back into human, causing onward human-to-human transmission. It'dbe a rare event and I don't think it's super likely, but I'm not sure our current data is inconsistent with such ascenario?
  5. 2021-03-26 07:31 Kristian G. Andersen open PDF p.635
    Some strong science behind Bobby's conclusion though. [shared file(s): Screen Shot 2021-03-26 at 07.30.07.png]
  6. 2021-03-26 07:37 Robert F. Garry open PDF p.635
    Even his friends like Bob Gallo recognize that he's a :clown_face:
  7. 2021-03-26 07:47 Andrew Rambaut open PDF p.635
    "most infectious virus we know in humanity"? Ha - not even close
  8. 2021-03-26 07:49 Kristian G. Andersen open PDF p.635
    Can you believe it - he was the Director of the US CDC...
  9. 2021-03-26 07:55 Robert F. Garry open PDF p.635
    when you add *under Trump* it all makes perfect sense.
  10. 2021-03-26 07:56 Kristian G. Andersen open PDF p.635
    Can you believe it - he was the President of the US...
  11. 2021-03-26 07:58 Robert F. Garry open PDF p.635
    I wrote a little note to 60 Minutes about the upcoming Metzl interview. He's going to push the theory that SARS-CoV-2 is a product of military research at WIV.
  12. 2021-03-26 08:01 Kristian G. Andersen open PDF p.636
    Oh please, please, please let him do exactly that - it's going to make them look like idiots
  13. 2021-03-26 08:23 Robert F. Garry open PDF p.636
    Yes- my goal was to make them at least put up a bunch of disclaimers and actually label him as the idiot he is. Redfield is simply looking to be relevant for another news cycle after being a big part of the biggest public healthfuckup in history.
  14. 2021-03-26 09:20 Robert F. Garry open PDF p.636
    FROM 60 minBob, Thank you for your note. I assure you that neither Jamie Metzl nor anyone else in our piece alleges that the virus isthe product of a bioweapons program. You should also know that we interview Peter Daszak at length in oursegment about the animal to human pathway hypothesis that the WHO-led team has concluded is most likely. RICH
  15. 2021-03-26 09:52 Robert F. Garry open PDF p.636
    Rich, After listening to Shi's seminar, hearing Metzl's question to Shi and his follow-up quotes I'm still very concerned about the direction that Metzl is taking the "debate." However, it's good know that there is balance from Peter Daszak. And, I believe the WHO report actually will reset the conversation, despite the best efforts of Metzl and others todismiss the report before it appears. Best, Bob G
  16. 2021-03-26 09:53 Robert F. Garry open PDF p.636
    That's the best I can do.
  17. 2021-03-26 10:33 Kristian G. Andersen open PDF p.636
    Good effort Bob - they're going with the false equivalence of course, but there's not much you can do to counter that with people like Lipsitch coming out saying it's fair game. Jamie though... Why they interview him in particular, I don't know - he's exceptionally stupid.
  18. 2021-03-26 10:39 Robert F. Garry open PDF p.636
    Agreed - but to your point about "let him do exactly that" - if fact - he already did it whether or not it gets into the 60Minutes piece. No doubt there will be opportunities to make the appropriate points since this whole Proximal Origins thing is not leaving the news cycles anytime soon.
  19. 2021-03-26 10:41 Kristian G. Andersen open PDF p.636
    My concern with 60 mins is that they might well edit the interview to make him look sane and insightful. That'd be amissed opportunity.
  20. 2021-03-26 10:42 Robert F. Garry open PDF p.637
    I was trying to avoid that - I suspect they are still editing the piece - hence my email to Rich Bonin.
  21. 2021-03-26 10:59 Kristian G. Andersen open PDF p.637
    @Andrew Rambaut - have you guys looked into this new variant some more? I don't understand all the mutations in ORF1ab - it seems very peculiar. Limited overlap with previous variants too.
  22. 2021-03-26 11:36 Andrew Rambaut open PDF p.637
    Recombinant?
  23. 2021-03-26 11:37 Andrew Rambaut open PDF p.637
    Will take a look later
  24. 2021-03-26 11:55 Kristian G. Andersen open PDF p.637
    Possibly, but many/most(?) of these mutations appear to be rare point mutations. It's a real franken lineage - very interesting.
  25. 2021-03-26 12:28 Kristian G. Andersen open PDF p.637
    I love our bluegrass playing Texas friend. [shared file(s): Screen Shot 2021-03-26 at 12.27.03.png]
  26. 2021-03-26 12:58 Edward C. Holmes open PDF p.637
    https://twitter.com/drtomfrieden/status/1375535968275607555?s=12
  27. 2021-03-26 13:06 Edward C. Holmes open PDF p.637
    https://twitter.com/amymaxmen/status/1375538755654852615?s=12
  28. 2021-03-26 13:35 Edward C. Holmes open PDF p.637
    https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2021-03-26/china-outlines-covid-origin-findings-ahead-of-who-report
  29. 2021-03-26 13:40 Edward C. Holmes open PDF p.637
    Any moment by the sound of it
  30. 2021-03-26 13:41 Kristian G. Andersen open PDF p.637
    "400 pages"... Whelp.
  31. 2021-03-26 13:42 Kristian G. Andersen open PDF p.637
    The news has really latched onto the "it's so well adapted to humans" bit. It's so mind numbingly dumb my head hurts.
  32. 2021-03-26 13:43 Edward C. Holmes open PDF p.637
    People just need to think it through
  33. 2021-03-26 13:44 Robert F. Garry open PDF p.638
    Yes - Redfield didn't help and Tony way too diplomatic - come on Dude.
  34. 2021-03-26 13:47 Robert F. Garry open PDF p.638
    Lab leak scenarios. The lab leak scenarios are the ones from the Paris Group letter authors (although the Paris Group letter itself left out some of the more - uhhh - "drastic" scenarios GoF, Bioweapons, Military). The yellow partsof both figures are parts of the pathway that we know DID happen, so any origin theory has to account for these. The lab leak scenarios require that WIV had SARS-CoV-2 and did not tell anybody [secret database} or EVEN more unlikely had it but didn't know they had it.More extreme versions require that WIV had undisclosed close progenitors of SARS-CoV-2 and in some scenarios pangolin coronaviruses. Then through manipulation of these secrete viruses via various lab activities they createdSC2. Jamie Metzl thinks that the Chinese military may have been involved as well. IMO the lab activities that they describe to create SC2 from anything but a secret 99.8 percent virus or greater amount to bad sci fi. RaTG13 plusGD pangolin cov RBD plus a FCS does not create SC2.The Paris Group letter also says that the SC2 captured by a laboratorian in nature or created in the lab full blownSARS-CoV-2 could have leaked from the lab in a laboratorian, an escaped in a lab animal or via waste or sewage.None of the lab scenarios explain how most of the early cases were linked to at least 2 Wet Markets. Is it plausible that SC2 just happened to leak from a lab to a wet market, then added 3 snps and found its way to another wet market. I'm not sure how close to impossible you need to get to say that's impossible, but getting VERY close. Nor do the lab leak hypotheses explain the lineage A to B shift (B lineage viruses are found in all the environmental samples at the Huanan market - which I believe that the WHO report will implicate animals or as well as all the ppl linked to the Huanan market . [shared file(s): image.png]
  35. 2021-03-26 13:49 Robert F. Garry open PDF p.638
    Simpler: [shared file(s): image.png]
  36. 2021-03-26 13:50 Edward C. Holmes open PDF p.638
    Great work Bob. Totally agree. 400 pages is going to keep the parisite's yellow marker pages busy for a while.
  37. 2021-03-26 13:52 Robert F. Garry open PDF p.638
    Trying to help ppl think it through- great point Eddie!
  38. 2021-03-26 13:52 Kristian G. Andersen open PDF p.638
    Any version of this would have required a researcher to have walked into a bat cave and magically finding the next pandemic virus - only to get themselves infected, wearing PPE. They then covered it up, and so did the entire WIV. The virus then somehow ended up in a market - where they were trading wild animals from parts of China where similar viruses have previously emerged - and caused the first cluster of epidemiologically connected cases. Sure, it's possible. However.
  39. 2021-03-26 13:53 Kristian G. Andersen open PDF p.638
    These people are throwing up so many different 'hypotheses' that they can no longer think straight (if ever they could). That includes A LOT of high profile scientists by now - funnily enough, none of them having worked onsimilar problems before.
  40. 2021-03-26 13:54 Robert F. Garry open PDF p.638
    Lineage A viruses were linked to wet markets too and those are ancestral. So the virus has to find one wet market -add 3 snps to become lineage B then find the Huanan market.
  41. 2021-03-26 13:57 Robert F. Garry open PDF p.639
    Here's the translation of that Table from the Epoch Times. [shared file(s): image.png]
  42. 2021-03-26 13:58 Kristian G. Andersen open PDF p.639
    Is there a higher res version? I have a hard time reading that
  43. 2021-03-26 13:59 Robert F. Garry open PDF p.639
    Hard time reading the Chinese or my scribbles?
  44. 2021-03-26 14:04 Robert F. Garry open PDF p.639
    Column B fish/shrimp, eel, seafood, wholesale, frozen seafood. Column C. ground, blood water, wheel barrow, balance, waste water, ground, door, ground, foam table, gloves, shoes, ground, ground. ground,. ground, ground, garbage truck, wall door, ground, fish package, door, ground , door, g, g, g, g, g, fridge inside, trailer, trailer, ground, remove feathers machine, CAGE!
  45. 2021-03-26 14:06 Edward C. Holmes open PDF p.639
    Cage!
  46. 2021-03-26 14:07 Kristian G. Andersen open PDF p.639
    What are the columns?
  47. 2021-03-26 14:07 Robert F. Garry open PDF p.639
    Feel free to share any of the Huanan Market map/Epoch times tables with anybody including Daszak. Same goes for the lab leak and natural scenarios...
  48. 2021-03-26 14:11 Robert F. Garry open PDF p.639
    1. Sample number (ties to the map yesterday. 2, Location in the market basically number of the lane and stall number 3. type of sample or I guess where they swabbed. 4. PCR results. 5. sequencing of N pcr. 6. seqiecing of sPCR. 7 NGS percentages are I guess to Wu-1 -not sure.
  49. 2021-03-26 14:13 Robert F. Garry open PDF p.639
    A few of the column 2 stalls show what was sold in them. Looks like some of that data has been scrubbed or not entered - maybe WHO/Daszak has it
  50. 2021-03-26 14:18 Robert F. Garry open PDF p.639
    @Eddie Holmes Also if you go back to the map above the same stall where they got the most POSITIVE PCR samples and these most consistent NGS results.
  51. 2021-03-26 14:22 Kristian G. Andersen open PDF p.639
    So for the cage they have no PCR results, but they have sequencing results? I don't quite understand what the yellow/red cells with percentages mean.
  52. 2021-03-26 14:28 Robert F. Garry open PDF p.640
    True - that's strange- they must have tried to sequence everything and gotten some sequences from pcr negative samples. Q61 is the same- pcr negative ngs positive - I think we've seen this on occasion in some of the Lassa samples.
  53. 2021-03-26 14:29 Robert F. Garry open PDF p.640
    Here: https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32457420/
  54. 2021-03-26 14:30 Kristian G. Andersen open PDF p.640
    Nah - gotta have PCR results to get any sequencing results with this virus
  55. 2021-03-26 14:30 Edward C. Holmes open PDF p.640
    Is there a WIV used lab animal stall?
  56. 2021-03-26 14:30 Kristian G. Andersen open PDF p.640
    For Lassa it's down to divergence - not so for this virus
  57. 2021-03-26 14:31 Edward C. Holmes open PDF p.640
    Let's wait for the report - doubtless will be dealt with in detail
  58. 2021-03-26 14:32 Edward C. Holmes open PDF p.640
    https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/md-politics/redfield-hogan-wuhan-coronavirus/2021/03/26/0d93dabe-8e63-1 1eb-a6bd-0eb91c03305a_story.html
  59. 2021-03-26 14:32 Robert F. Garry open PDF p.640
    Good point! Diversity yeah - the PCRS for lASV only 70-75% sensitive vs NGS.
  60. 2021-03-26 14:38 Robert F. Garry open PDF p.640
    WashPost editorial team needs to step aside too BTW. Here's the article in case you're locked out. [shared file(s):Hogan adviser Robert Redfield urged to step down over Wuhan virus remarks - The Washington Post.pdf]
  61. 2021-03-26 14:41 Kristian G. Andersen open PDF p.640
    @Andrew Rambaut - take a look at this alignment, comparing the Tanzania variant to the very early lineages, including the Malaysia one and WA1. This one appears to be closer to RaTG13, plus a bunch of private mutations (separately, I aligned to various B lineages, but didn't do this in a structured way). Here's what I can gather so far on the mutations that are shared. Ancestral (RaTG13), missing in Tanzania variant 18,060 Ancestral, private in Tanzania variant 190; 15,279; (23,012); 23,683 Ancestral, shared 8,782; (28,144) [shared file(s): tanzania_variant_snps.xlsx, tanzania_variant.geneious]
  62. 2021-03-26 15:27 Edward C. Holmes open PDF p.641
    I think these are raccoon dogs...stacked in cages. [shared file(s): 20141029_152015.jpg]
  63. 2021-03-26 15:39 Kristian G. Andersen open PDF p.641
    Yours?
  64. 2021-03-26 15:42 Robert F. Garry open PDF p.641
    Sure looks like this animal to me! [shared file(s): image.png]
  65. 2021-03-26 15:45 Edward C. Holmes open PDF p.641
    Yes, my photo from the market.
  66. 2021-03-26 15:46 Edward C. Holmes open PDF p.641
    So, not just one animal in a cage on the floor.
  67. 2021-03-26 15:49 Robert F. Garry open PDF p.641
    Here's the photo from your CNN report - unverified footage they say but sure looks like the same animal species. [shared file(s): image.png]
  68. 2021-03-26 15:51 Edward C. Holmes open PDF p.641
    So, they've been selling these animals there for years. An accident waiting to happen.
  69. 2021-03-26 15:59 Robert F. Garry open PDF p.641
    https://www.newsweek.com/humans-not-animals-likely-took-covid-virus-wuhan-contrary-chinas-claims-1578861 "The science is also bad because it isn't based on any on-the-ground evidence. There were many cases of COVID-19 in Wuhan before the market outbreak. In addition, the only live animals in the market seem to have been*snakes, turtles, and frogs*, none of whom are potential carriers, and they all tested negative. Peter Daszak himself has admitted that all of the carcasses examined tested negative for SARS-CoV-2. Yes, you read that right: the theory is based on the fact that they didn't find any infected animals in Wuhan.In any case, the director of China's Center for Disease Control dismissed the market theory last May, explaining that there was no connection and that the virus "existed long before" it was found in the market, which makes it *rather extraordinary that the WHO team chose to spend its limited time poking around the empty building (which had been closed, cleared and disinfected more than a year ago*)."
  70. 2021-03-26 16:01 Robert F. Garry open PDF p.641
    SAme Rowan Jacobson who wrote the Alina Chan crap for Boston Magazine, Could COVID-19 Have Escaped from a Lab? The world's preeminent scientists say a theory from the Broad Institute's Alina Chan is too wild to be believed. But when the theory is about the possibility of COVID being man-made, is this science or censorship?
  71. 2021-03-26 16:03 Robert F. Garry open PDF p.641
    Maybe he'll correct his Newsweek article when Eddie's pics see the daylight.
  72. 2021-03-26 16:04 Edward C. Holmes open PDF p.642
    That is one shit and very biased article! And then I noticed it was Rowan...I've had to block him. Useless.
  73. 2021-03-26 16:16 Robert F. Garry open PDF p.642
    https://www.cbsnews.com/news/world-health-organization-covid-team-wuhan-china-coronavirus-origin-starts-work/" Finally, during the WHO's mission to China, Daszak said the team found new evidence that these farms were supplying vendors at the Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market in Wuhan, where an early outbreak of COVID-19 occurred. The market was shut down overnight on Dec. 31, 2019, after it was linked to cases of what was then described as amysterious pneumonia-like illness. "There was massive transmission going on at that market for sure," says Linfa Wang, a virologist who studies bat viruses at Duke-NUS Medical School in Singapore. He's also part of the WHO investigative team. Wang says that after the outbreak at the Huanan market, Chinese scientists went there and looked for the virus."In the live animal section, they had many positive samples," Wang says. "They even have two samples from which they could isolate live virus."
  74. 2021-03-26 16:21 Robert F. Garry open PDF p.642
    George's admission at the Scripps seminar that yes - they were selling erotic animals at the market - is important.
  75. 2021-03-26 16:25 Kristian G. Andersen open PDF p.642
    "erotic animals" :flushed:
  76. 2021-03-26 16:28 Edward C. Holmes open PDF p.642
    Those zoonots are really sexy.
  77. 2021-03-26 16:32 Robert F. Garry open PDF p.642
    oop's :flushed: