Slack / Private Message Drop — page 330

[Kristian Andersen] [thread - ID: 2020-12-20 13:28:24] Do you know if Wendy is going to be able to test neutralization from vaccinees in addition to convalescent patients? [2020-12-20 13:29:28] [Andrew Rambaut] Worse case would if it had selected for immune evasion, and was more transmissible, and ended up at high frequency, which could make vaccines less efficient and require a higher coverage for the higher R. [2020-12-20 13:30:17] [Andrew Rambaut] [thread - ID: 2020-12-20 13:28:24] @Kristian Andersen Yes. Convelescent plasma from natural infections and vaccinees will be tested. [2020-12-20 13:30:25] [Kristian Andersen] Yup - exactly. Under a 'normal' evolution scenario I'd say that would be extremely unlikely - however, in this particular case, I'm not so sure. [2020-12-20 13:31:19] [Andrew Rambaut] Exactly. Basically it would be best to knock it out but that is likely too late. [2020-12-20 13:31:36] [Kristian Andersen] Australia managed to do it :wink: [2020-12-20 13:32:40] [Kristian Andersen] But yeah - we're not going to be able to completely stop this now - sure, put the brakes on, but we'll likely see this become the dominant lineage over the next few months. [2020-12-20 13:32:50] [Andrew Rambaut] Best we can hope for is that it isn't more transmissible and gets eliminated by the new lock down measures. A worse case is that the measures knock every thing else out. [2020-12-20 13:33:13] [Kristian Andersen] Yup! [2020-12-20 13:33:43] [Andrew Rambaut] I hope it turns out we are wrong and it is not transmissible - it is the right decision not to wait to find out I think. [2020-12-20 13:35:16] [Kristian Andersen] Agreed - this is a perfect example where we can't wait for scientific certainty, but need to react immediately and decisively. No pussyfooting around. Also, I find it hilarious that we find ourselves in 1/"Virologists look at a mutation and assume it is adaptive, evolutionary biologists assume it isn't. Neither are right all the time" :wink: [2020-12-20 14:11:06] [Eddie Holmes]