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Slack / Private Message Drop, p.330 [SLACK_000544] · slack_pm:msg:03470

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Yup - exactly. Under a 'normal' evolution scenario I'd say that would be extremely unlikely - however, in this particular case, I'm not so sure.

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A single line often inverts meaning once you see what it answers, so neighbouring messages are always shown.

2020-12-20 13:27 Kristian G. Andersen open

Yeah, same here - until I see data, no point in speculating, however, let's not trust our priors 100%
2020-12-20 13:28 Kristian G. Andersen open

Do you know if Wendy is going to be able to test neutralization from vaccinees in addition to convalescent patients?
2020-12-20 13:29 Andrew Rambaut open

Worse case would if it had selected for immune evasion, and was more transmissible, and ended up at high frequency, which could make vaccines less efficient and require a higher coverage for the higher R.
2020-12-20 13:30 Andrew Rambaut open

@Kristian Andersen Yes. Convelescent plasma from natural infections and vaccinees will be tested.
2020-12-20 13:30 Kristian G. Andersen

Yup - exactly. Under a 'normal' evolution scenario I'd say that would be extremely unlikely - however, in this particular case, I'm not so sure.
2020-12-20 13:31 Andrew Rambaut open

Exactly. Basically it would be best to knock it out but that is likely too late.
2020-12-20 13:31 Kristian G. Andersen open

Australia managed to do it :wink:
2020-12-20 13:32 Kristian G. Andersen open

But yeah - we're not going to be able to completely stop this now - sure, put the brakes on, but we'll likely see this become the dominant lineage over the next few months.
2020-12-20 13:32 Andrew Rambaut open

Best we can hope for is that it isn't more transmissible and gets eliminated by the new lock down measures. A worse case is that the measures knock every thing else out.