Slack / Private Message Drop — page 329

[2020-12-20 13:19:38] [Andrew Rambaut] I bet that is a chronic patient [2020-12-20 13:20:12] [Andrew Rambaut] Yes all from the same dead 45 year old man [2020-12-20 13:20:17] [Kristian Andersen] Holy moly - a lot of mutations there... [2020-12-20 13:20:22] [Andrew Rambaut] Is that the NEJM case? [2020-12-20 13:20:35] [Andrew Rambaut] Seems to be an increasing number over time. [2020-12-20 13:20:38] [Kristian Andersen] Lemme check - don't think so [2020-12-20 13:21:41] [Kristian Andersen] Actually, probably is... https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2031364 [2020-12-20 13:22:01] [Kristian Andersen] We don't see N501Y in our chronic patient - big difference, no treatment in that person. [2020-12-20 13:24:57] [Kristian Andersen] @Andrew Rambaut - question here, as I see this coming up in many many news articles. Do folks understand that there are two separate concerns here? (1) Increased transmission, possibly due to N501Y, and (2) Concerns about 'immunity' due to the mutations and deletions on the same haplotype? I see many people commenting that "we shouldn't expect SARS-CoV-2 to evolve towards immune evasion", but the problem here is that what we're seeing here isn't 'normal' SARS-CoV-2 evolution - it's a different process and it may _specifically_ be related to immune evasion. Can't assume our normal priors are appropriate here. [2020-12-20 13:26:42] [Andrew Rambaut] I have brought this up a few times but I still don't think people get it. [2020-12-20 13:26:58] [Andrew Rambaut] I am leaving it until the lab work is done. [2020-12-20 13:27:23] [Kristian Andersen] Yeah, same here - until I see data, no point in speculating, however, let's not trust our priors 100% [2020-12-20 13:28:24]