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Slack / Private Message Drop, p.329 [SLACK_000543] · slack_pm:msg:03459

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Seems to be an increasing number over time.

In context

A single line often inverts meaning once you see what it answers, so neighbouring messages are always shown.

2020-12-20 13:19 Andrew Rambaut open

I bet that is a chronic patient
2020-12-20 13:20 Andrew Rambaut open

Yes all from the same dead 45 year old man
2020-12-20 13:20 Kristian G. Andersen open

Holy moly - a lot of mutations there...
2020-12-20 13:20 Andrew Rambaut open

Is that the NEJM case?
2020-12-20 13:20 Andrew Rambaut

Seems to be an increasing number over time.
2020-12-20 13:20 Kristian G. Andersen open

Lemme check - don't think so
2020-12-20 13:21 Kristian G. Andersen open

Actually, probably is... https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2031364
2020-12-20 13:22 Kristian G. Andersen open

We don't see N501Y in our chronic patient - big difference, no treatment in that person.
2020-12-20 13:24 Kristian G. Andersen open

@Andrew Rambaut - question here, as I see this coming up in many many news articles. Do folks understand that there are two separate concerns here? (1) Increased transmission, possibly due to N501Y, and (2) Concerns about 'immunity' due to the mutations and deletions on the same haplotype? I see many people commenting that "we shouldn't expect SARS-CoV-2 to evolve towards immune evasion", but the problem here is that what we're seeing here isn't 'normal' SARS-CoV-2 evolution - it's a different process and it may _specifically_ be related to immune evasion. Can't assume our normal priors are appropriate here.