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Slack / Private Message Drop, p.329 [SLACK_000543] · slack_pm:msg:03463

Date: 2020-12-20 13:24
Type: chat message · slack
mentioned: Andrew Rambaut
recipient: Robert F. Garry, Edward C. Holmes, Andrew Rambaut
speaker: Kristian G. Andersen

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@Andrew Rambaut - question here, as I see this coming up in many many news articles. Do folks understand that there are two separate concerns here? (1) Increased transmission, possibly due to N501Y, and (2) Concerns about 'immunity' due to the mutations and deletions on the same haplotype? I see many people commenting that "we shouldn't expect SARS-CoV-2 to evolve towards immune evasion", but the problem here is that what we're seeing here isn't 'normal' SARS-CoV-2 evolution - it's a different process and it may _specifically_ be related to immune evasion. Can't assume our normal priors are appropriate here.

In context

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2020-12-20 13:20 Andrew Rambaut open

Seems to be an increasing number over time.
2020-12-20 13:20 Kristian G. Andersen open

Lemme check - don't think so
2020-12-20 13:21 Kristian G. Andersen open

Actually, probably is... https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2031364
2020-12-20 13:22 Kristian G. Andersen open

We don't see N501Y in our chronic patient - big difference, no treatment in that person.
2020-12-20 13:24 Kristian G. Andersen

@Andrew Rambaut - question here, as I see this coming up in many many news articles. Do folks understand that there are two separate concerns here? (1) Increased transmission, possibly due to N501Y, and (2) Concerns about 'immunity' due to the mutations and deletions on the same haplotype? I see many people commenting that "we shouldn't expect SARS-CoV-2 to evolve towards immune evasion", but the problem here is that what we're seeing here isn't 'normal' SARS-CoV-2 evolution - it's a different process and it may _specifically_ be related to immune evasion. Can't assume our normal priors are appropriate here.
2020-12-20 13:26 Andrew Rambaut open

I have brought this up a few times but I still don't think people get it.
2020-12-20 13:26 Andrew Rambaut open

I am leaving it until the lab work is done.
2020-12-20 13:27 Kristian G. Andersen open

Yeah, same here - until I see data, no point in speculating, however, let's not trust our priors 100%
2020-12-20 13:28 Kristian G. Andersen open

Do you know if Wendy is going to be able to test neutralization from vaccinees in addition to convalescent patients?

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