Slack / Private Message Drop — page 1030

[Eddie Holmes] Pfizer were bragging they could get it ready in 100 days...I guess that's not deployable stocks though. [2021-11-25 12:39:49] [Kristian Andersen] @Eddie Holmes - the graph is based on SGTF, not sequencing, so not nearly as biased. That said, it's still biased and it simply can't be correct. [2021-11-25 12:43:15] [Kristian Andersen] If we assume Delta has an R0 of 6, eyeballing that graph would put B.1.1.529 at, what, 15-20? Can't be right. Problem is, it doesn't even have to be that bad - something with increased R0 over Delta would itself be deeply problematic since we can't get control of Delta as it is. If we then add what is sure to be additional immune escape (possibly near-complete), it'd be disastrous. So I'm just going to hope that it's all a fluke and that it actually has a significantly lower R0 than Delta because of that weird RBD and then it won't be able to compete. [2021-11-25 12:46:59] [Kristian Andersen] @Andrew Rambaut - who's on the WHO committee? [2021-11-25 12:50:50] [Andrew Rambaut] Long list. Generally the people you might expect. [2021-11-26 09:04:16] [Andrew Rambaut] OK. Peeps. We are definitely considering the human->animal->human origins of Nu (as it may or may not be called). [2021-11-26 09:04:37] [Andrew Rambaut] Would be happy to work with you all on this. [2021-11-26 09:06:19] [Andrew Rambaut] We are currently looking for the closest potentially basal genome in humans but at the moment it definitely looks like being 2020. I am struggling to see how a that could be a chronic infection followed by transmission. I doubt an HIV patient would survive that long with a CoV infection doing all this shit. [2021-11-26 09:07:08] [Andrew Rambaut] A non-human host would also explain adaptation in the RBD to a different ACE-2? It may have antigenic consequences in humans but that is coincidental because it is the RBD [2021-11-26 09:07:35] [Robert Garry] CHeck out the figure in the other channel - 7-of 7 mutations seen in rodents are in Nu - that's unlikely.... [2021-11-26 09:08:15] [Andrew Rambaut] We are working with Tulio on this so I would prefer not to broaden it out too much. [2021-11-26 09:08:37]