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Slack / Private Message Drop, p.1030 [SLACK_001244] · slack_pm:msg:10763

Page text: p.1030 · original PDF

Date
2021-11-25 12:39
Type
chat message · slack
mentioned
Edward C. Holmes
recipient
Robert F. Garry, Edward C. Holmes, Andrew Rambaut
speaker
Kristian G. Andersen

Recipients on this medium are inferred from channel membership, not per-message addressing.

@Eddie Holmes - the graph is based on SGTF, not sequencing, so not nearly as biased. That said, it's still biased and it simply can't be correct.

In context

A single line often inverts meaning once you see what it answers, so neighbouring messages are always shown.

  1. 2021-11-25 12:26 Edward C. Holmes open
    That graph and it's header is a bit irresponsible. Can't make those conclusions with focused sampling on a poorlyimmunized population. That said, I hope that Moderna and Pfizer have redesigned their vaccines already
  2. 2021-11-25 12:28 Edward C. Holmes open
    Both Andrew and I know Sean Nee well. He was not a fan of Monty Python.
  3. 2021-11-25 12:29 Andrew Rambaut open
    It was estimated today that it would take 6-9 months to get an updated mRNA vaccine to deployable stocks.
  4. 2021-11-25 12:33 Edward C. Holmes open
    Pfizer were bragging they could get it ready in 100 days...I guess that's not deployable stocks though.
  5. 2021-11-25 12:39 Kristian G. Andersen
    @Eddie Holmes - the graph is based on SGTF, not sequencing, so not nearly as biased. That said, it's still biased and it simply can't be correct.
  6. 2021-11-25 12:43 Kristian G. Andersen open
    If we assume Delta has an R0 of 6, eyeballing that graph would put B.1.1.529 at, what, 15-20? Can't be right. Problem is, it doesn't even have to be that bad - something with increased R0 over Delta would itself be deeply problematic since we can't get control of Delta as it is. If we then add what is sure to be additional immune escape (possibly near-complete), it'd be disastrous.So I'm just going to hope that it's all a fluke and that it actually has a significantly lower R0 than Delta because of that weird RBD and then it won't be able to compete.
  7. 2021-11-25 12:46 Kristian G. Andersen open
    @Andrew Rambaut - who's on the WHO committee?
  8. 2021-11-25 12:50 Andrew Rambaut open
    Long list. Generally the people you might expect.

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