Chat message

Slack / Private Message Drop, p.1030 [SLACK_001244] · slack_pm:msg:10764

Date: 2021-11-25 12:43
Type: chat message · slack
recipient: Robert F. Garry, Edward C. Holmes, Andrew Rambaut
speaker: Kristian G. Andersen
Topics: Furin cleavage site and molecular features

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If we assume Delta has an R0 of 6, eyeballing that graph would put B.1.1.529 at, what, 15-20? Can't be right. Problem is, it doesn't even have to be that bad - something with increased R0 over Delta would itself be deeply problematic since we can't get control of Delta as it is. If we then add what is sure to be additional immune escape (possibly near-complete), it'd be disastrous.So I'm just going to hope that it's all a fluke and that it actually has a significantly lower R0 than Delta because of that weird RBD and then it won't be able to compete.

Extracted statements

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Statement	Grade	Attribution	Stance
If we then add what is sure to be additional immune escape (possibly near-complete), it'd be disastrous.So I'm just going to hope that it's all a fluke and that it actually has a significantly lower R0 than Delta because of that weird RBD and then it won't be able to compete.	quoted / not their view	hypothetical conditional framing	asserts

Statement

Grade

Attribution

Stance

If we then add what is sure to be additional immune escape (possibly near-complete), it'd be disastrous.So I'm just going to hope that it's all a fluke and that it actually has a significantly lower R0 than Delta because of that weird RBD and then it won't be able to compete.

quoted / not their view

hypothetical conditional framing

asserts

In context

A single line often inverts meaning once you see what it answers, so neighbouring messages are always shown.

2021-11-25 12:28 Edward C. Holmes open

Both Andrew and I know Sean Nee well. He was not a fan of Monty Python.
2021-11-25 12:29 Andrew Rambaut open

It was estimated today that it would take 6-9 months to get an updated mRNA vaccine to deployable stocks.
2021-11-25 12:33 Edward C. Holmes open

Pfizer were bragging they could get it ready in 100 days...I guess that's not deployable stocks though.
2021-11-25 12:39 Kristian G. Andersen open

@Eddie Holmes - the graph is based on SGTF, not sequencing, so not nearly as biased. That said, it's still biased and it simply can't be correct.
2021-11-25 12:43 Kristian G. Andersen

If we assume Delta has an R0 of 6, eyeballing that graph would put B.1.1.529 at, what, 15-20? Can't be right. Problem is, it doesn't even have to be that bad - something with increased R0 over Delta would itself be deeply problematic since we can't get control of Delta as it is. If we then add what is sure to be additional immune escape (possibly near-complete), it'd be disastrous.So I'm just going to hope that it's all a fluke and that it actually has a significantly lower R0 than Delta because of that weird RBD and then it won't be able to compete.
2021-11-25 12:46 Kristian G. Andersen open

@Andrew Rambaut - who's on the WHO committee?
2021-11-25 12:50 Andrew Rambaut open

Long list. Generally the people you might expect.

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