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Slack / Private Message Drop, pp.1103-1104 [SLACK_001317] · slack_pm:msg:11507

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Pretty sure that's what BA.2 did as well (while being even more transmissible - which is unreal!)

In context

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2022-04-08 07:23 Andrew Rambaut open

Perhaps it was circulating all the time but is now in a slight advantage due to the unusual immune landscape in RSA.Or....
2022-04-08 07:23 Andrew Rambaut open

perhaps we are all fucked again
2022-04-08 07:24 Andrew Rambaut open

There are details in the UKHSA tech briefing today
2022-04-08 07:24 Kristian G. Andersen open

I'm pretty darn convinced BA.1 infection leads to pretty crappy immunity so a slight advantage in evasion while maintaining R0, well...
2022-04-08 07:25 Kristian G. Andersen

Pretty sure that's what BA.2 did as well (while being even more transmissible - which is unreal!)
2022-04-08 07:56 Andrew Rambaut open

The question is, did BA.2 require previous peak of BA.1 to make a second peak? Obviously it would still be able tocreate a first peak in countries where it was the first Omicron.
2022-04-08 07:57 Andrew Rambaut open

The other thing I am really wondering about now is the 69/70del - it really seems to alternate in UK
2022-04-08 07:57 Andrew Rambaut open

(OK, only P=0.5^3 so far but if BA.4 takes off that would be P=0.0625
2022-04-08 07:59 Robert F. Garry open

https://twitter.com/JamesCTobias/status/1512421544198348802 Meanwhile FOIA drama continues...