Private channel session 1760

19 messages over 45m, 2022-04-08 – 2022-04-08.

A “conversation” here is an activity session — a run of messages with under 60 minutes of silence inside it. The channel had no native conversation boundaries.

1. 2022-04-08 07:16 Andrew Rambaut open PDF p.1103
   Anyone for BA.4 and BA.5? Straight out of Gauteng/Botswana. Estimated MRCA Nov 2021
2. 2022-04-08 07:17 Andrew Rambaut open PDF p.1103
   Has 69/70del (unlike BA.2) and SGTF (and cases) rising in South Africa. Cases in UK, Denmark, Germany - probably elsewhere now
3. 2022-04-08 07:21 Kristian G. Andersen open PDF p.1103
   :see_no_evil: :hear_no_evil:
4. 2022-04-08 07:22 Kristian G. Andersen open PDF p.1103
   MRCA with BA.1/2?
5. 2022-04-08 07:22 Andrew Rambaut open PDF p.1103
   Tulio is cooking these up in his GOF lab
6. 2022-04-08 07:22 Andrew Rambaut open PDF p.1103
   No - MRCA within BA.4
7. 2022-04-08 07:22 Andrew Rambaut open PDF p.1103
   It is weird
8. 2022-04-08 07:22 Andrew Rambaut open PDF p.1103
   Doesn't look like a new selective sweep.
9. 2022-04-08 07:23 Andrew Rambaut open PDF p.1103
   Perhaps it was circulating all the time but is now in a slight advantage due to the unusual immune landscape in RSA.Or....
10. 2022-04-08 07:23 Andrew Rambaut open PDF p.1103
    perhaps we are all fucked again
11. 2022-04-08 07:24 Andrew Rambaut open PDF p.1103
    There are details in the UKHSA tech briefing today
12. 2022-04-08 07:24 Kristian G. Andersen open PDF p.1103
    I'm pretty darn convinced BA.1 infection leads to pretty crappy immunity so a slight advantage in evasion while maintaining R0, well...
13. 2022-04-08 07:25 Kristian G. Andersen open PDF p.1103
    Pretty sure that's what BA.2 did as well (while being even more transmissible - which is unreal!)
14. 2022-04-08 07:56 Andrew Rambaut open PDF p.1104
    The question is, did BA.2 require previous peak of BA.1 to make a second peak? Obviously it would still be able tocreate a first peak in countries where it was the first Omicron.
15. 2022-04-08 07:57 Andrew Rambaut open PDF p.1104
    The other thing I am really wondering about now is the 69/70del - it really seems to alternate in UK
16. 2022-04-08 07:57 Andrew Rambaut open PDF p.1104
    (OK, only P=0.5^3 so far but if BA.4 takes off that would be P=0.0625
17. 2022-04-08 07:59 Robert F. Garry open PDF p.1104
    https://twitter.com/JamesCTobias/status/1512421544198348802 Meanwhile FOIA drama continues...
18. 2022-04-08 08:02 Andrew Rambaut open PDF p.1104
    Jeez they are going to be disappointed when they finally get these things.
19. 2022-04-08 08:02 Andrew Rambaut open PDF p.1104
    I think it is probably NIH just trolling them to keep them distracted from their Antivaxx misinformation campaign