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Slack / Private Message Drop, p.1103 [SLACK_001317] · slack_pm:msg:11506

Page text: p.1103 · original PDF

Date
2022-04-08 07:24
Type
chat message · slack
recipient
Robert F. Garry, Edward C. Holmes, Andrew Rambaut
speaker
Kristian G. Andersen

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I'm pretty darn convinced BA.1 infection leads to pretty crappy immunity so a slight advantage in evasion while maintaining R0, well...

In context

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  1. 2022-04-08 07:22 Andrew Rambaut open
    Doesn't look like a new selective sweep.
  2. 2022-04-08 07:23 Andrew Rambaut open
    Perhaps it was circulating all the time but is now in a slight advantage due to the unusual immune landscape in RSA.Or....
  3. 2022-04-08 07:23 Andrew Rambaut open
    perhaps we are all fucked again
  4. 2022-04-08 07:24 Andrew Rambaut open
    There are details in the UKHSA tech briefing today
  5. 2022-04-08 07:24 Kristian G. Andersen
    I'm pretty darn convinced BA.1 infection leads to pretty crappy immunity so a slight advantage in evasion while maintaining R0, well...
  6. 2022-04-08 07:25 Kristian G. Andersen open
    Pretty sure that's what BA.2 did as well (while being even more transmissible - which is unreal!)
  7. 2022-04-08 07:56 Andrew Rambaut open
    The question is, did BA.2 require previous peak of BA.1 to make a second peak? Obviously it would still be able tocreate a first peak in countries where it was the first Omicron.
  8. 2022-04-08 07:57 Andrew Rambaut open
    The other thing I am really wondering about now is the 69/70del - it really seems to alternate in UK
  9. 2022-04-08 07:57 Andrew Rambaut open
    (OK, only P=0.5^3 so far but if BA.4 takes off that would be P=0.0625

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