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1. 2021-11-30 14:21 Kristian G. Andersen open
   So this bloody things is widespread _all_ over South Africa and presumably most of Southern Africa as well... Bloody hell, it took off fast.
2. 2021-11-30 14:21 Andrew Rambaut open
   @Kristian Andersen Missed this - where was that?
3. 2021-11-30 14:23 Kristian G. Andersen open
   @Kristian Andersen This: https://twitter.com/dmaccannell/status/1465526465336950784?s=20. Duncan taking it on because it's being amplified in US media and everybody is getting pinged about it.
4. 2021-11-30 14:25 Andrew Rambaut open
   Yes - two independent travellers from Mozambique (Italy and Reunion)
5. 2021-11-30 14:25 Andrew Rambaut
   All within the Gauteng/Botswana diversity
6. 2021-11-30 14:35 Kristian G. Andersen open
   Do we understand what's going on here? Moritz mentioned that places like Gauteng had ~80% attack rates in previous waves, so I'm almost certain immunity is massively eroded. Question is - do we have increased transmission of Omicron to add to that? My gut tells me yes - simply given the speed here.
7. 2021-11-30 15:00 Andrew Rambaut open
   I would be surprised if inherent transmissibility is higher than delta. My gut tells me this is due to massive number ofnew susceptibles and complete lack of any NPIs.
8. 2021-11-30 15:10 Kristian G. Andersen open
   I agree on the massive number of new susceptibles, but some of those mutations in the FCS and NTD + outside the spike - not sure those are only involved in immune escape.
9. 2021-11-30 15:26 Andrew Rambaut open
   NSP6del + Nelly + Pooh is Alpha like .

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