Slack / Private Message Drop — page 1036

[Andrew Rambaut] Yes - two independent travellers from Mozambique (Italy and Reunion) [2021-11-30 14:25:38] [Andrew Rambaut] All within the Gauteng/Botswana diversity [2021-11-30 14:35:26] [Kristian Andersen] Do we understand what's going on here? Moritz mentioned that places like Gauteng had ~80% attack rates in previous waves, so I'm almost certain immunity is massively eroded. Question is - do we have increased transmission of Omicron to add to that? My gut tells me yes - simply given the speed here. [2021-11-30 15:00:31] [Andrew Rambaut] I would be surprised if inherent transmissibility is higher than delta. My gut tells me this is due to massive number of new susceptibles and complete lack of any NPIs. [2021-11-30 15:10:35] [Kristian Andersen] I agree on the massive number of new susceptibles, but some of those mutations in the FCS and NTD + outside the spike - not sure those are only involved in immune escape. [2021-11-30 15:26:54] [Andrew Rambaut] NSP6del + Nelly + Pooh is Alpha like . [2021-12-01 14:09:51] [Kristian Andersen] @Andrew Rambaut - thoughts? https://twitter.com/sebduchene/status/1466161635056254983?s=20. Wildly different estimates, but it's from Sebastian... [2021-12-01 14:21:16] [Andrew Rambaut] He probably has the bullshit Italian genomes in there. And the South African ones called for reference [2021-12-01 14:36:24] [Eddie Holmes] Sorry, I asked the same question in the other channel before spotting this. I assumed there was an error somewhere. [2021-12-01 14:40:00] [Andrew Rambaut] Just ran BEAST again and now I am getting lower rates and older TMRCA: 2021-10-07 (2021-09-26, 2021-10-18) [2021-12-01 14:40:34] [Andrew Rambaut] Doubling time: 6.7 days (4.7-11.7) [2021-12-01 14:40:56] [Andrew Rambaut] R: 1.62 (1.34, 1.92) [2021-12-01 14:41:24] [Andrew Rambaut]