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Slack / Private Message Drop, p.1036 [SLACK_001250] · slack_pm:msg:10831

Page text: p.1036 · original PDF

Date
2021-11-30 15:26
Type
chat message · slack
recipient
Kristian G. Andersen, Robert F. Garry, Edward C. Holmes
speaker
Andrew Rambaut

Recipients on this medium are inferred from channel membership, not per-message addressing.

NSP6del + Nelly + Pooh is Alpha like .

In context

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  1. 2021-11-30 14:25 Andrew Rambaut open
    All within the Gauteng/Botswana diversity
  2. 2021-11-30 14:35 Kristian G. Andersen open
    Do we understand what's going on here? Moritz mentioned that places like Gauteng had ~80% attack rates in previous waves, so I'm almost certain immunity is massively eroded. Question is - do we have increased transmission of Omicron to add to that? My gut tells me yes - simply given the speed here.
  3. 2021-11-30 15:00 Andrew Rambaut open
    I would be surprised if inherent transmissibility is higher than delta. My gut tells me this is due to massive number ofnew susceptibles and complete lack of any NPIs.
  4. 2021-11-30 15:10 Kristian G. Andersen open
    I agree on the massive number of new susceptibles, but some of those mutations in the FCS and NTD + outside the spike - not sure those are only involved in immune escape.
  5. 2021-11-30 15:26 Andrew Rambaut
    NSP6del + Nelly + Pooh is Alpha like .

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