Chat message

Slack / Private Message Drop, p.1036 [SLACK_001250] · slack_pm:msg:10829

Date: 2021-11-30 15:00
Type: chat message · slack
recipient: Kristian G. Andersen, Robert F. Garry, Edward C. Holmes
speaker: Andrew Rambaut

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I would be surprised if inherent transmissibility is higher than delta. My gut tells me this is due to massive number ofnew susceptibles and complete lack of any NPIs.

In context

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2021-11-30 14:23 Kristian G. Andersen open

@Kristian Andersen This: https://twitter.com/dmaccannell/status/1465526465336950784?s=20. Duncan taking it on because it's being amplified in US media and everybody is getting pinged about it.
2021-11-30 14:25 Andrew Rambaut open

Yes - two independent travellers from Mozambique (Italy and Reunion)
2021-11-30 14:25 Andrew Rambaut open

All within the Gauteng/Botswana diversity
2021-11-30 14:35 Kristian G. Andersen open

Do we understand what's going on here? Moritz mentioned that places like Gauteng had ~80% attack rates in previous waves, so I'm almost certain immunity is massively eroded. Question is - do we have increased transmission of Omicron to add to that? My gut tells me yes - simply given the speed here.
2021-11-30 15:00 Andrew Rambaut

I would be surprised if inherent transmissibility is higher than delta. My gut tells me this is due to massive number ofnew susceptibles and complete lack of any NPIs.
2021-11-30 15:10 Kristian G. Andersen open

I agree on the massive number of new susceptibles, but some of those mutations in the FCS and NTD + outside the spike - not sure those are only involved in immune escape.
2021-11-30 15:26 Andrew Rambaut open

NSP6del + Nelly + Pooh is Alpha like .

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