A single line often inverts meaning once you see what it
answers, so neighbouring messages are always shown.
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Agreed - it's based on what Kai put in the Science article. I didn't talk to Ian, but our media departed reached outmentioning that more recent estimates seem to converge around mid-October, with a large degree of uncertainty.
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NL, ex-RSA in the tree, correct? (given recent - "IT WAS WIDESPREAD IN EUROPE OVER THE SUMMER!!!")
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Yes. Marion says most of them came from Capetown which is eminently plausible in that tree.
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So this bloody things is widespread _all_ over South Africa and presumably most of Southern Africa as well... Bloody hell, it took off fast.
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2021-11-30 14:21
Andrew Rambaut
@Kristian Andersen Missed this - where was that?
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@Kristian Andersen This: https://twitter.com/dmaccannell/status/1465526465336950784?s=20. Duncan taking it on because it's being amplified in US media and everybody is getting pinged about it.
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Yes - two independent travellers from Mozambique (Italy and Reunion)
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All within the Gauteng/Botswana diversity
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Do we understand what's going on here? Moritz mentioned that places like Gauteng had ~80% attack rates in previous waves, so I'm almost certain immunity is massively eroded. Question is - do we have increased transmission of Omicron to add to that? My gut tells me yes - simply given the speed here.