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Slack / Private Message Drop, p.1035 [SLACK_001249] · slack_pm:msg:10825

Page text: p.1035 · original PDF

Date
2021-11-30 14:23
Type
chat message · slack
recipient
Robert F. Garry, Edward C. Holmes, Andrew Rambaut
speaker
Kristian G. Andersen

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@Kristian Andersen This: https://twitter.com/dmaccannell/status/1465526465336950784?s=20. Duncan taking it on because it's being amplified in US media and everybody is getting pinged about it.

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  1. 2021-11-30 14:20 Kristian G. Andersen open
    NL, ex-RSA in the tree, correct? (given recent - "IT WAS WIDESPREAD IN EUROPE OVER THE SUMMER!!!")
  2. 2021-11-30 14:20 Andrew Rambaut open
    Yes. Marion says most of them came from Capetown which is eminently plausible in that tree.
  3. 2021-11-30 14:21 Kristian G. Andersen open
    So this bloody things is widespread _all_ over South Africa and presumably most of Southern Africa as well... Bloody hell, it took off fast.
  4. 2021-11-30 14:21 Andrew Rambaut open
    @Kristian Andersen Missed this - where was that?
  5. 2021-11-30 14:23 Kristian G. Andersen
    @Kristian Andersen This: https://twitter.com/dmaccannell/status/1465526465336950784?s=20. Duncan taking it on because it's being amplified in US media and everybody is getting pinged about it.
  6. 2021-11-30 14:25 Andrew Rambaut open
    Yes - two independent travellers from Mozambique (Italy and Reunion)
  7. 2021-11-30 14:25 Andrew Rambaut open
    All within the Gauteng/Botswana diversity
  8. 2021-11-30 14:35 Kristian G. Andersen open
    Do we understand what's going on here? Moritz mentioned that places like Gauteng had ~80% attack rates in previous waves, so I'm almost certain immunity is massively eroded. Question is - do we have increased transmission of Omicron to add to that? My gut tells me yes - simply given the speed here.
  9. 2021-11-30 15:00 Andrew Rambaut open
    I would be surprised if inherent transmissibility is higher than delta. My gut tells me this is due to massive number ofnew susceptibles and complete lack of any NPIs.

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