A single line often inverts meaning once you see what it
answers, so neighbouring messages are always shown.
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Working on ourrenewal @Kristian Andersen - Hoping this is not part of the justification...."Immunosuppressed individuals are thought to be the source variants, such as Ni that accelerated the COVID-19 pandemic and drove itto new heights."
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Let's hope not Bob. I think Nu could likely be a big problem, but surely the early data can't be correct.
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Nu - sorry - @Andrew Rambaut put Monty Python into my head and it's going to be hard to get away from that image of the knights...
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That graph and it's header is a bit irresponsible. Can't make those conclusions with focused sampling on a poorlyimmunized population. That said, I hope that Moderna and Pfizer have redesigned their vaccines already
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2021-11-25 12:28
Edward C. Holmes
Both Andrew and I know Sean Nee well. He was not a fan of Monty Python.
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It was estimated today that it would take 6-9 months to get an updated mRNA vaccine to deployable stocks.
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Pfizer were bragging they could get it ready in 100 days...I guess that's not deployable stocks though.
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@Eddie Holmes - the graph is based on SGTF, not sequencing, so not nearly as biased. That said, it's still biased and it simply can't be correct.
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If we assume Delta has an R0 of 6, eyeballing that graph would put B.1.1.529 at, what, 15-20? Can't be right. Problem is, it doesn't even have to be that bad - something with increased R0 over Delta would itself be deeply problematic since we can't get control of Delta as it is. If we then add what is sure to be additional immune escape (possibly near-complete), it'd be disastrous.So I'm just going to hope that it's all a fluke and that it actually has a significantly lower R0 than Delta because of that weird RBD and then it won't be able to compete.