Chat message

Slack / Private Message Drop, p.626 [SLACK_000840] · slack_pm:msg:06555

Date: 2021-03-24 05:08
Type: chat message · slack
recipient: Kristian G. Andersen, Edward C. Holmes, Andrew Rambaut
speaker: Robert F. Garry
Topics: Natural origin / zoonotic spillover

Recipients on this medium are inferred from channel membership, not per-message addressing.

This is really SC1 all over again. Hard to find SC1 in the wild but occasionally you find clusters in animals brought tomarket. 95% bat viruses {are there closer ones?] found but SC2 only are found in civets, raccoon dogs andoccasional badgers. These are animals brought to MARKET-what you do you find are clusters of infected animals. Such a SC2 cluster could have seeded the C19 pandemic - traders brought a group of animals to Wuhan - during transport SC2 lineage A spread - may have picked up the lineage B mutations. Lineage A animal sent to nonHuananMarket; Lineae B animal sent to Huanan market.

In context

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2021-03-24 04:55 Robert F. Garry open

YES! :100:
2021-03-24 04:57 Robert F. Garry open

The lineage A and B is a big clue - argues against lab leak - otherwise the nefarious Shi and her henchmen seedednot one but 2 markets with two lineages to cover their tracks?
2021-03-24 05:07 Andrew Rambaut open

Although they would argue that B in the market evolved from A and thus proves that the market was not the origin
2021-03-24 05:08 Andrew Rambaut open

I.e., that WA1 was the actual lab escape
2021-03-24 05:08 Robert F. Garry

This is really SC1 all over again. Hard to find SC1 in the wild but occasionally you find clusters in animals brought tomarket. 95% bat viruses {are there closer ones?] found but SC2 only are found in civets, raccoon dogs andoccasional badgers. These are animals brought to MARKET-what you do you find are clusters of infected animals. Such a SC2 cluster could have seeded the C19 pandemic - traders brought a group of animals to Wuhan - during transport SC2 lineage A spread - may have picked up the lineage B mutations. Lineage A animal sent to nonHuananMarket; Lineae B animal sent to Huanan market.
2021-03-24 05:09 Robert F. Garry open

"WA1 was the actual lab escape" This is the crux of it!
2021-03-24 05:10 Andrew Rambaut open

That's what I would argue if I was wearing a tin foil hat. It is 3 SNPs closer to RaTG13
2021-03-24 05:10 Andrew Rambaut open

Cause that matters
2021-03-24 05:11 Robert F. Garry open

You would have to argue that WA1 escaped from the lab - lit a mini-burst wherein it picked up the 3 lineage B mutations then by incredible coincidence landed in the Huanan market animal stalls where it really took off.

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