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Slack / Private Message Drop, p.444 [SLACK_000658] · slack_pm:msg:04593

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Otherwise we would see these combinations coming up a lot.

In context

A single line often inverts meaning once you see what it answers, so neighbouring messages are always shown.

2021-01-23 17:21 Kristian G. Andersen open

That's weird. I mean, P.1. has many overlapping mutations so surely those at least must be right?
2021-01-23 17:21 Andrew Rambaut open

I thought they were more likely reversions than intermediates (still unlikely) but when I pointed them out to Tulio hesaid he thought they weren't real and they were fixing them.
2021-01-23 17:21 Kristian G. Andersen open

Oh.
2021-01-23 17:23 Andrew Rambaut open

I still think all three are chronic cases which have selected for antigenic escape within the host (and for B.1.1.7 atleast increased transmissibility) and then these turned out to be in places where these were very fit.
2021-01-23 17:24 Andrew Rambaut

Otherwise we would see these combinations coming up a lot.
2021-01-23 17:24 Kristian G. Andersen open

Yeah, that's true - either strong bottleneck (in single host) or very strong selection.
2021-01-23 17:24 Andrew Rambaut open

Not to say they couldn't given enough time but the chronic patient is just a kickstart
2021-01-23 17:25 Kristian G. Andersen open

Such an interesting virus evolutionarily speaking - I _do_ wonder what other shit it'll throw after us.
2021-01-23 17:26 Edward C. Holmes open

Tulio and his tools.