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Slack / Private Message Drop, p.444 [SLACK_000658] · slack_pm:msg:04590

Date: 2021-01-23 17:21
Type: chat message · slack
recipient: Kristian G. Andersen, Robert F. Garry, Edward C. Holmes
speaker: Andrew Rambaut

Recipients on this medium are inferred from channel membership, not per-message addressing.

I thought they were more likely reversions than intermediates (still unlikely) but when I pointed them out to Tulio hesaid he thought they weren't real and they were fixing them.

In context

A single line often inverts meaning once you see what it answers, so neighbouring messages are always shown.

2021-01-23 17:19 Andrew Rambaut open

Trevor has been going around saying the RSA lineage arose in sequence based on some genomes with only some of the mutations but they are not old sequences and I have heard that Tulio uses some weird homebrew bioinformatics that may call for reference occasionally.
2021-01-23 17:20 Kristian G. Andersen open

Eh?
2021-01-23 17:20 Andrew Rambaut open

Exactly
2021-01-23 17:21 Kristian G. Andersen open

That's weird. I mean, P.1. has many overlapping mutations so surely those at least must be right?
2021-01-23 17:21 Andrew Rambaut

I thought they were more likely reversions than intermediates (still unlikely) but when I pointed them out to Tulio hesaid he thought they weren't real and they were fixing them.
2021-01-23 17:21 Kristian G. Andersen open

Oh.
2021-01-23 17:23 Andrew Rambaut open

I still think all three are chronic cases which have selected for antigenic escape within the host (and for B.1.1.7 atleast increased transmissibility) and then these turned out to be in places where these were very fit.
2021-01-23 17:24 Andrew Rambaut open

Otherwise we would see these combinations coming up a lot.
2021-01-23 17:24 Kristian G. Andersen open

Yeah, that's true - either strong bottleneck (in single host) or very strong selection.

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