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Slack / Private Message Drop, p.415 [SLACK_000629] · slack_pm:msg:04293

Page text: p.415 · original PDF

Date
2021-01-18 08:18
Type
chat message · slack
recipient
Robert F. Garry, Edward C. Holmes, Andrew Rambaut
speaker
Kristian G. Andersen

Recipients on this medium are inferred from channel membership, not per-message addressing.

Are they hanging with Nelly too?

In context

A single line often inverts meaning once you see what it answers, so neighbouring messages are always shown.

  1. 2021-01-18 07:44 Robert F. Garry open
    Actually the Gupta data fell about where I expected. 3-6 fold reduction is not fantastic for B117, but actually could have been worse. EeeK will likely result in a bigger drop I suspect.
  2. 2021-01-18 08:00 Kristian G. Andersen open
    Yeah, I agree Bob. - right where you might expect it to land. Quite a number of folks with no neuts to either virus aswell. Eeek will for sure be worse and cross the 4x threshold (I believe) is being used in the flu field to trigger avaccine update.
  3. 2021-01-18 08:14 Robert F. Garry open
    That's a good analogy to flu - and you're right vaccine update will be needed. Just hoping that most humans can mount a good response to K484.
  4. 2021-01-18 08:15 Andrew Rambaut open
    Eek + Pooh: ```Accession ID Collection date Submission date Location EPI_ISL_778908 2020-11-30 2021-01-07 North America / USA / Maryland EPI_ISL_791414 2020-11-21 2021-01-08 North America / USA / Maryland EPI_ISL_791426 2020-12-30 2021-01-08 North America / USA / Maryland EPI_ISL_791427 2021-01-01 2021-01-08 North America / USA / Maryland```
  5. 2021-01-18 08:18 Kristian G. Andersen
    Are they hanging with Nelly too?
  6. 2021-01-18 08:19 Andrew Rambaut open
    No. Unrelated
  7. 2021-01-18 08:22 Kristian G. Andersen open
    Interesting. I expect we'll see N501Y pop up on that background shortly.
  8. 2021-01-18 08:24 Kristian G. Andersen open
    Bob, to your point about vaccine updates - yes, absolutely going to be needed. However, what's going to be very different here is that we're going to have a gazillion different (partially) vaccine 'resistant' lineages floating around atthe same time because we have sooooo many infections. Are we going to make an updated vaccine for each? Stick'em all together in a single vaccine? How are we going to prioritize?Until we use NPIs to massively drop infections down, I don't think we'll be successful in this game of whack-a-mole.
  9. 2021-01-18 08:26 Kristian G. Andersen open
    I may be extremely pessimistic here, but by the time we have vaccinated enough people to reach herd immunity thresholds, I'm pretty sure we'll be dealing with almost completely resistant SARS-CoV-2 - and multiple different lineages.

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