Slack / Private Message Drop — page 415

[2021-01-18 07:44:11] [Robert Garry] Actually the Gupta data fell about where I expected. 3-6 fold reduction is not fantastic for B117, but actually could have been worse. EeeK will likely result in a bigger drop I suspect. [2021-01-18 08:00:51] [Kristian Andersen] Yeah, I agree Bob. - right where you might expect it to land. Quite a number of folks with no neuts to either virus as well. Eeek will for sure be worse and cross the 4x threshold (I believe) is being used in the flu field to trigger a vaccine update. [2021-01-18 08:14:17] [Robert Garry] That's a good analogy to flu - and you're right vaccine update will be needed. Just hoping that most humans can mount a good response to K484. [2021-01-18 08:15:40] [Andrew Rambaut] Eek + Pooh: ```Accession ID Collection date Submission date Location EPI_ISL_778908 2020-11-30 2021-01-07 North America / USA / Maryland EPI_ISL_791414 2020-11-21 2021-01-08 North America / USA / Maryland EPI_ISL_791426 2020-12-30 2021-01-08 North America / USA / Maryland EPI_ISL_791427 2021-01-01 2021-01-08 North America / USA / Maryland``` [2021-01-18 08:18:11] [Kristian Andersen] Are they hanging with Nelly too? [2021-01-18 08:19:13] [Andrew Rambaut] No. Unrelated [2021-01-18 08:22:40] [Kristian Andersen] Interesting. I expect we'll see N501Y pop up on that background shortly. [2021-01-18 08:24:40] [Kristian Andersen] Bob, to your point about vaccine updates - yes, absolutely going to be needed. However, what's going to be very different here is that we're going to have a gazillion different (partially) vaccine 'resistant' lineages floating around at the same time because we have sooooo many infections. Are we going to make an updated vaccine for each? Stick 'em all together in a single vaccine? How are we going to prioritize? Until we use NPIs to massively drop infections down, I don't think we'll be successful in this game of whack-a-mole. [2021-01-18 08:26:46] [Kristian Andersen] I may be extremely pessimistic here, but by the time we have vaccinated enough people to reach herd immunity thresholds, I'm pretty sure we'll be dealing with almost completely resistant SARS-CoV-2 - and multiple different lineages. [2021-01-18 08:32:11] [Robert Garry] Maybe true - and it may be time to *start lowering expectations*. It's very possible we'll be in a situation [maybe already there] where the vaccines do not prevent infection or spread but offer some protection from severe disease. AKA flu vaccine. This means getting you ~flu~ CoV vaccine each year or maybe even every 6 months.