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Slack / Private Message Drop, p.415 [SLACK_000629] · slack_pm:msg:04296

Page text: p.415 · original PDF

Date
2021-01-18 08:24
Type
chat message · slack
recipient
Robert F. Garry, Edward C. Holmes, Andrew Rambaut
speaker
Kristian G. Andersen
Topics
Vaccines

Recipients on this medium are inferred from channel membership, not per-message addressing.

Bob, to your point about vaccine updates - yes, absolutely going to be needed. However, what's going to be very different here is that we're going to have a gazillion different (partially) vaccine 'resistant' lineages floating around atthe same time because we have sooooo many infections. Are we going to make an updated vaccine for each? Stick'em all together in a single vaccine? How are we going to prioritize?Until we use NPIs to massively drop infections down, I don't think we'll be successful in this game of whack-a-mole.

Extracted statements

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StatementGradeAttributionStance
However, what's going to be very different here is that we're going to have a gazillion different (partially) vaccine 'resistant' lineages floating around atthe same time because we have sooooo many infections. own voice, substantive speaker_own asserts
Are we going to make an updated vaccine for each? needs context speaker_own questions

In context

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  1. 2021-01-18 08:15 Andrew Rambaut open
    Eek + Pooh: ```Accession ID Collection date Submission date Location EPI_ISL_778908 2020-11-30 2021-01-07 North America / USA / Maryland EPI_ISL_791414 2020-11-21 2021-01-08 North America / USA / Maryland EPI_ISL_791426 2020-12-30 2021-01-08 North America / USA / Maryland EPI_ISL_791427 2021-01-01 2021-01-08 North America / USA / Maryland```
  2. 2021-01-18 08:18 Kristian G. Andersen open
    Are they hanging with Nelly too?
  3. 2021-01-18 08:19 Andrew Rambaut open
    No. Unrelated
  4. 2021-01-18 08:22 Kristian G. Andersen open
    Interesting. I expect we'll see N501Y pop up on that background shortly.
  5. 2021-01-18 08:24 Kristian G. Andersen
    Bob, to your point about vaccine updates - yes, absolutely going to be needed. However, what's going to be very different here is that we're going to have a gazillion different (partially) vaccine 'resistant' lineages floating around atthe same time because we have sooooo many infections. Are we going to make an updated vaccine for each? Stick'em all together in a single vaccine? How are we going to prioritize?Until we use NPIs to massively drop infections down, I don't think we'll be successful in this game of whack-a-mole.
  6. 2021-01-18 08:26 Kristian G. Andersen open
    I may be extremely pessimistic here, but by the time we have vaccinated enough people to reach herd immunity thresholds, I'm pretty sure we'll be dealing with almost completely resistant SARS-CoV-2 - and multiple different lineages.
  7. 2021-01-18 08:32 Robert F. Garry open
    Maybe true - and it may be time to *start lowering expectations*. It's very possible we'll be in a situation [maybe already there] where the vaccines do not prevent infection or spread but offer some protection from severe disease. AKA flu vaccine. This means getting you ~flu~ CoV vaccine each year or maybe even every 6 months.
  8. 2021-01-18 09:06 Robert F. Garry open
    In some ways thou the fact that we're seem the same mutations popping up repeatedly is "reassuring" in the sense that it may not take a gazillion.
  9. 2021-01-18 09:10 Robert F. Garry open
    Alina was clearly wrong on many levels when she stated "SARS-CoV-2 is well adapted for humans." It's what lead her down the path that SC2 must be engineered or GOF. It's not that well adapted apparently because it keeps mutating. https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.01.073262v1.full.pdf

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