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Slack / Private Message Drop, p.82 [SLACK_000296] · slack_pm:msg:00833

Page text: p.82 · original PDF

Date
2020-06-18 15:46
Type
chat message · slack
recipient
Kristian G. Andersen, Robert F. Garry, Edward C. Holmes
speaker
Andrew Rambaut
Topics
China relations and data access

Recipients on this medium are inferred from channel membership, not per-message addressing.

Plausible: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jun/18/global-report-beijing-covid-19-cluster-may-have-begun-amonth-earlier-china-health-chief

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Plausible: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jun/18/global-report-beijing-covid-19-cluster-may-have-begun-amonth-earlier-china-health-chief needs context speaker_own asserts

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  1. 2020-06-18 15:38 Andrew Rambaut open
    I don't really know. I think they all come from the market (1 environmental and 2 people) on the same day so it seems unlikely. Unless this is much bigger than they think.
  2. 2020-06-18 15:39 Andrew Rambaut open
    You probably saw it but here is the ML tree (with an outgroup root): [shared file(s): beijing_11.ml.tree.png]
  3. 2020-06-18 15:40 Andrew Rambaut open
    Weird that the one of them is at the base of that polytomy.
  4. 2020-06-18 15:42 Kristian G. Andersen open
    Yeah, it's very interesting. Is it really possibly Beijing has had an outbreak for quite some time? As in at least a few weeks?I have been trying to create an alignment to look at the individual mutation for the last few hours - I can't deal with how big the data is these days... :wink:
  5. 2020-06-18 15:46 Andrew Rambaut
    Plausible: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jun/18/global-report-beijing-covid-19-cluster-may-have-begun-amonth-earlier-china-health-chief
  6. 2020-06-18 15:47 Kristian G. Andersen open
    Yup. Bloody exponential growth!
  7. 2020-06-18 15:48 Kristian G. Andersen open
    Could have been a single hit and then slow fuse, boom.
  8. 2020-06-18 15:48 Andrew Rambaut open
    This whole group has that triple mutation in N. I was trying to work out where that arose (first seen in a German sequence but there might be an earlier one now).
  9. 2020-06-18 15:54 Edward C. Holmes open
    The other day the narrative was that the Wuhan market was a hot spot because it was 'hot and sweaty' now these markets are hot spots because they are 'cold and wet'. Obviously dry and temperate is the best place to live. Does sound like this cluster has been around for a while though.

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