Chat message

Slack / Private Message Drop, p.82 [SLACK_000296] · slack_pm:msg:00832

Date: 2020-06-18 15:42
Type: chat message · slack
recipient: Robert F. Garry, Edward C. Holmes, Andrew Rambaut
speaker: Kristian G. Andersen
Topics: China relations and data access

Recipients on this medium are inferred from channel membership, not per-message addressing.

Yeah, it's very interesting. Is it really possibly Beijing has had an outbreak for quite some time? As in at least a few weeks?I have been trying to create an alignment to look at the individual mutation for the last few hours - I can't deal with how big the data is these days... :wink:

Extracted statements

Rule-extracted, not adjudicated. The grade says what may be done with each one; read the document above before relying on any of them.

Statement	Grade	Attribution	Stance
Is it really possibly Beijing has had an outbreak for quite some time?	needs context	uncertain explicit hedge	questions

Statement

Grade

Attribution

Stance

Is it really possibly Beijing has had an outbreak for quite some time?

needs context

uncertain explicit hedge

questions

In context

A single line often inverts meaning once you see what it answers, so neighbouring messages are always shown.

2020-06-18 15:22 Kristian G. Andersen open

Haha
2020-06-18 15:38 Andrew Rambaut open

I don't really know. I think they all come from the market (1 environmental and 2 people) on the same day so it seems unlikely. Unless this is much bigger than they think.
2020-06-18 15:39 Andrew Rambaut open

You probably saw it but here is the ML tree (with an outgroup root): [shared file(s): beijing_11.ml.tree.png]
2020-06-18 15:40 Andrew Rambaut open

Weird that the one of them is at the base of that polytomy.
2020-06-18 15:42 Kristian G. Andersen

Yeah, it's very interesting. Is it really possibly Beijing has had an outbreak for quite some time? As in at least a few weeks?I have been trying to create an alignment to look at the individual mutation for the last few hours - I can't deal with how big the data is these days... :wink:
2020-06-18 15:46 Andrew Rambaut open

Plausible: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jun/18/global-report-beijing-covid-19-cluster-may-have-begun-amonth-earlier-china-health-chief
2020-06-18 15:47 Kristian G. Andersen open

Yup. Bloody exponential growth!
2020-06-18 15:48 Kristian G. Andersen open

Could have been a single hit and then slow fuse, boom.
2020-06-18 15:48 Andrew Rambaut open

This whole group has that triple mutation in N. I was trying to work out where that arose (first seen in a German sequence but there might be an earlier one now).

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