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Slack / Private Message Drop, pp.82-83 [SLACK_000296] · slack_pm:msg:00834

Page text: p.82, p.83 · original PDF

Date: 2020-06-18 15:47
Type: chat message · slack
recipient: Robert F. Garry, Edward C. Holmes, Andrew Rambaut
speaker: Kristian G. Andersen

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Yup. Bloody exponential growth!

In context

A single line often inverts meaning once you see what it answers, so neighbouring messages are always shown.

2020-06-18 15:39 Andrew Rambaut open

You probably saw it but here is the ML tree (with an outgroup root): [shared file(s): beijing_11.ml.tree.png]
2020-06-18 15:40 Andrew Rambaut open

Weird that the one of them is at the base of that polytomy.
2020-06-18 15:42 Kristian G. Andersen open

Yeah, it's very interesting. Is it really possibly Beijing has had an outbreak for quite some time? As in at least a few weeks?I have been trying to create an alignment to look at the individual mutation for the last few hours - I can't deal with how big the data is these days... :wink:
2020-06-18 15:46 Andrew Rambaut open

Plausible: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jun/18/global-report-beijing-covid-19-cluster-may-have-begun-amonth-earlier-china-health-chief
2020-06-18 15:47 Kristian G. Andersen

Yup. Bloody exponential growth!
2020-06-18 15:48 Kristian G. Andersen open

Could have been a single hit and then slow fuse, boom.
2020-06-18 15:48 Andrew Rambaut open

This whole group has that triple mutation in N. I was trying to work out where that arose (first seen in a German sequence but there might be an earlier one now).
2020-06-18 15:54 Edward C. Holmes open

The other day the narrative was that the Wuhan market was a hot spot because it was 'hot and sweaty' now these markets are hot spots because they are 'cold and wet'. Obviously dry and temperate is the best place to live. Does sound like this cluster has been around for a while though.
2020-06-18 15:55 Kristian G. Andersen open

I think the markets are probably just super spreading events + increased surveillance.

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