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Slack / Private Message Drop, p.82 [SLACK_000296] · slack_pm:msg:00831

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Weird that the one of them is at the base of that polytomy.

In context

A single line often inverts meaning once you see what it answers, so neighbouring messages are always shown.

2020-06-18 15:15 Edward C. Holmes open

In basements all over the world people will be looking at Google Maps and drawing straight lines between the fish market and the China CDC head office in Beijing.
2020-06-18 15:22 Kristian G. Andersen open

Haha
2020-06-18 15:38 Andrew Rambaut open

I don't really know. I think they all come from the market (1 environmental and 2 people) on the same day so it seems unlikely. Unless this is much bigger than they think.
2020-06-18 15:39 Andrew Rambaut open

You probably saw it but here is the ML tree (with an outgroup root): [shared file(s): beijing_11.ml.tree.png]
2020-06-18 15:40 Andrew Rambaut

Weird that the one of them is at the base of that polytomy.
2020-06-18 15:42 Kristian G. Andersen open

Yeah, it's very interesting. Is it really possibly Beijing has had an outbreak for quite some time? As in at least a few weeks?I have been trying to create an alignment to look at the individual mutation for the last few hours - I can't deal with how big the data is these days... :wink:
2020-06-18 15:46 Andrew Rambaut open

Plausible: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jun/18/global-report-beijing-covid-19-cluster-may-have-begun-amonth-earlier-china-health-chief
2020-06-18 15:47 Kristian G. Andersen open

Yup. Bloody exponential growth!
2020-06-18 15:48 Kristian G. Andersen open

Could have been a single hit and then slow fuse, boom.