Private channel session 1451
58 messages over —, 2021-05-29 – 2021-05-29.
A “conversation” here is an activity session — a run of messages with under 60 minutes of silence inside it. The channel had no native conversation boundaries.
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SLACK_001108 This worries me. It would mean going through Daszak and that would reduce the objectiveness of the paper. Betterif Jon Cohen did it. Also, I have to say, I looked at the paper yesterday and I thought it had gotten a lot worse. There are just too many cooks. I'm not really keen on the way it is heading.
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We can't resolve every issue here and we shouldn't even try. I thought the aim was just to point out that there isevidence for natural origin that should not be ignored.
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The paper is definitely too long at the moment, but I think can be cut significantly - I think the first part is quite good,no? I haven't gotten a chance to look at the later sections because, yes, too long. Focus should be on getting the main points down and then the rest can go in the separate document / website. Please feel free to take an axe to it Eddie :wink: .
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Needs a big axe. I'll see if I have time later.
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We can't have Daszak anywhere near this
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I wish more people would listen to this. https://www. youtube.com/watch?v=d7kRxmEgzbQ&t=241 1s
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Yes, it's good. I've found something...
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On Jan 4th 2020 my spi sent me this:
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shared file(s): Screen Shot 2021-05-30 at 3.22.44 pm.png
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Yeah, makes sense, no? 4991 is RaTG13
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So, clearly someone at WIV had tipped him off and told him the virus was like 4991...which is clearly RaTG13. So,that's 2 days after Shi sequenced.
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On the 6th he sent me this: SLACK_001109
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shared file(s): Screen Shot 2021-05-30 at 3.23.27 pm.png
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shared file(s): m.pdf
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So, the point is that this confirms Shi's story of what happened.
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Which part?
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This is the earliest document on the outbreak from Shi's lab I think. She said that they sequenced SARS-CoV-2 and then screened their databases to see what matched. The only match they had was 4991/RaTG13. No evidence ofanything as close that they then deleted. It also confirms the Addendum to her Nature paper.
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This is also the first reported tree with SARS-CoV-2 in.
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Might not be much but it is at least consistent.
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Ahhh, I see what you're saying - this tree contains *everything* relevant they have, including RaTG13, which is very very close if you only consider RdRp. If she was concerned about similarity because it came from the lab, she would have taken out 4991 - it's very very close in the tree, but once you have the full sequence, you know it ain't it, but you don't from just the RdRp fragment.
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Yes, that's it.
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Is there anywhere to confirm the sequences are internal and not just from NCBI?
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If the former, this is the 'effing SMOKING GUN of NOT lab escape.
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Let me check with i
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SLACK_001110 That'd be great. If I looked at that tree and I was Shi, my first thought would be - FUCK, did 4991 get out? Yet, she/they decided not to hide the similarity (of course, it would have been noticed anyway because 4991 was ina public database, but there's just no way they'd be thinking that way).
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The sequences all have NCBI accession numbers, so probably from NCBI.
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Is it possible to confirm the tree is from Shi's lab?
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Yes, thinking about it you are probably right. Damn! I will check with I assumed it was Shi's group because they were the only people thinking about 4991, but on reflection it cou someone at CCDC.
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Yeah, I'm thinking it's somebody who got a short RdRp fragment, did a blast, pulled down related / relevant sequences and created the tree. That wouldn't really mean much - unless, of course, it came from Shi's group. Would be good to ask.
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I've just emailed him. I agree though...it does look like a GenBank compilation.
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It's the hope that gets you.
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|_would_ love to know what happened after that tree was circulated though - image getting that hit, seeing how close 4991 is and then looking up the metadata [shared file(s): Screen Shot 2021-05-29 at 10.51.15 PM.png]
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After that realization, you have _got_ to ask yourself "did 4991 just escape from WIV". There's just no other way around it - would love to know what happened the days right after.
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Totally! Notice that I did not destroy the file either.
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Hah, I *did* notice that... Shame on you :wink:
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So, let's wait for I'll now look at the main doc....I see the comments run for about 3 pages longer...
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SLACK_001111 Image seeing all of this though, freaking out about this having come from the lab, surely the next thing one would dowould go and 'plant' the virus in some random animal from the market. It had been shut down just a couple of days before.IfI had to cover up a lab leak, that's what I would do - not whatever the fuck is happening right now.
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Yeah, let's see if has more to that document - I mean, it_must_ have been on the minds of smart people at the time, so I'd love to get some intel on that. There's just no way.
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But if you believe the tinfoils they knew about this is September and at least November
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That would have given them even longer to plant that virus in an animal at the market... :wink:
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I gotta say though - had I sequenced that RdRp and blasted that fragment, I would have lost my shit. Immediately.
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Right. You wouldn't be putting in a paper to Nature for all the fucking world to see.
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Nope. And I remember you and I discussing that back then.
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And virus X could not really any closer to SARS-CoV-2 than that on an RdRp tree....
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The letter is FAR too complex. The false equivalence angle does not work at all for me.
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This needs to completely rewritten IMO
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= replied - it's NOT from Shi. Damn! He got sent the RdRp and did it himself. Bum. Of some historical interest jough. The excitement did not last long....
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Morning - I agree about the letter. It won't have impact like this. Did you see the structure I suggested: https://andersenlab.slack.com/archives/C022R1 PFL2K/p1622293697 139200 ?
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SLACK_001112 1. Substantial evidence base that zoonosis is the source of this - this should be the bulk of the paper. 2. Capture-escape is basically a very specific and low probability route for zoonosis to have occurred. The only way the posterior probability of this goes from close to zero to something reasonable is by the addition of evidence. Ifevidence emerges that SARS-CoV-2 was in the lab in November then the posterior probability of lab-escape goes to1, at the moment it is near 0.3. Thus capture-escape is unsubstantiated conjecture about a conspiracy to cover up the evidence (access to labdocumentation will thus say nothing either way).4. If capture-escape happened then further natural zoonosis is still a more likely source in future (although thatemerges from 2 so perhaps is not worth saying).5. It is seriously distracting from understanding and ameliorating our risk of future pandemics and re-emergence ofthis virus.
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We should ignore manipulation altogether and let Bloom and co have to come back and say "ah but ... what if ..."
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I agree. Do you want to start on this? If not, I can try tomorrow. All the different forms of lab escape should go in the second paragraph
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I won't be able to do anything today until everyone has gone to bed. I have to get off my laptop and interact with family. Plus it is the first warm sunny day since last September I think (don't say anything @Kristian Andersen).
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https://twitter.com/gumby4christ/status/139848880807 7893640. I have my own wall of crazy now. Simplified: Alina Chan ->Jeremy Epstein. As noted in -channel you can also draw not so crazy lines from Epstein to Peter Theil(Yuri), Steve Bannon (Dr. Yan), David Asher/Pompeo and I'm sure the list goes on and on. Karma has a way ofbiting you in the ass. Accuse people of genocide you better make sure your own house is squeaky clean. Archivingsome of the tweets just for fun: [shared file(s): image.png, image.png]
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Missed a lot here, but hanging with MB cstercey - She's having some pretty serious back surgery in a few weeks and we bought a better bed and a ter recliner for her (Memorial Day sales). Yes that tree is of historical importance and you can bet Shi et al. did one as well.
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https://www.statnews.com/2016/06/02/synthetic-human-genome/ Alina's first bite of the media star apple.
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https://www.bing.com/videos/search?q=twiv+762+you+tube&&view=detail&mid=087450BEAE72B29 19FB7087450BEAE72B2919FB7&&FORM=VRDGAR&ru=%2Fvideos%2Fsearch%3Fq%3Dtwiv%2 B762%2Byou%2Btube%26qs%3Dn%26form%3DQBVR%26sp%3D- 1 %26pq%3Dtwiv%2B762%2Byou%2Btube%2 6sc%3D2-17%26sk%3D%26cvid%3D4B8DEBA8B9EB4799A09178689FC37A81
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I might have talked about you guys a few times.
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Thanks Bob for doing the podcast - looking forward to listening to it later today! Here's the YouTube link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IxwrDSYrhjU. Love that Alina ended up on her own little wall of crazy - the thread is about as crazy as her own...